Looking at today's BTC chart, there's some interesting movement on the 4-hour timeframe. After dropping from the intraday high of 97,925, the price hit the upper Bollinger Band and immediately turned around. The MACD red histogram has already started to shrink, and a death cross has appeared. Both RSI and KDJ are sliding down from high levels. In simple terms, the bullish momentum has lost its stamina, a typical pattern of a rally to absorb supply followed by a correction.



Tonight's market is likely to continue downward. My approach in this situation is very clear:

**How to enter short positions**

You can open a position around the current price of 95,500. If there’s a rebound and the price pushes up to the 96,000-96,200 range, add to your position. Place your stop-loss above 98,000 to avoid being swept out by sudden upward spikes.

The target is divided into two stages: first, watch 93,000 (which is the middle Bollinger Band, so you can cut your position in half there), and the final target is 90,000 (a key round number and previous consolidation zone). When it hits that, close all positions.

**Risk management is key**

Never risk more than 15% of your total funds on a single trade, and enter gradually. Stop-loss must be strict—if the price effectively breaks below 98,000, exit immediately, don’t wait. Take profits in stages—lock in some gains at 93,000 by halving your position, and keep the rest to catch a larger correction.

**What to do in unexpected situations**

If overnight positive news (like a surge in US stocks or regulatory easing) pushes the price above 98,000, cut your losses immediately and observe from the sidelines. Wait for the market to stabilize before re-entering. Conversely, if the price quickly breaks below 93,000, add to your short positions, as there is support at 88,000 below.

Basically, this strategy is about shifting from a passive gambler mindset to an active hunter mentality—set traps in advance, wait for the right moment to strike, and stick to strict discipline. Only then can you continuously profit from the market.
BTC-2,62%
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DuckFluffvip
· 14h ago
This guy is messing around again, always talking as if it's real, but what’s the result? --- Oh my, the stop-loss point is set way too tight. Once it breaks 98,000, it’s an immediate exit. How can we make money like this? --- The red candle shrinking and the death cross appearing, it sounds a bit like a fake signal, but I don’t know if it’s just being pushed up to shake out traders again. --- I agree with the strategy of entering in batches; anyway, going all-in is just asking for death. --- That 90,000 target is a bit greedy. Isn’t taking half at 93,000 more reasonable? Why be so stubborn? --- So should I go short now or wait? Feels like I’m always so indecisive. --- Typical armchair quarterback analysis. Let’s see what you say when it breaks below 98,000 tonight. --- Risk control first, no problem there, but in real trading, no one can actually do it.
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DAOplomacyvip
· 01-17 16:58
tbh the whole "hunter mentality" framing is... arguably just gambler rhetoric with better risk management optics, ngl. path dependency matters here—once you're in the trade, incentive structures get pretty warped real quick.
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TeaTimeTradervip
· 01-17 16:56
This analysis is quite detailed, but I still think the 90,000 level is uncertain; it depends on how the US market reacts.
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blocksnarkvip
· 01-17 16:42
Bro, you’ve got a pretty detailed grasp of the rhythm this time, but I feel like this position is easily broken through. Wait, according to your thinking, we should be entering now, right? I see there are bearish news in the evening. The stop-loss at 98,000 is too high, it feels like the fees will eat up half the profit. This time, I’ll still enter gradually and steadily. Don’t be greedy.
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MidsommarWalletvip
· 01-17 16:36
Hmm... this analysis is indeed rational, much better than shouting all day long. I'm just worried about not being able to execute; being soft-hearted is a trader's Achilles' heel.
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