Recently, those paying close attention to the market should be able to feel that there is a strange atmosphere permeating the market. Although global assets are generally rising—US stocks, precious metals, A-shares are all surging—the crypto circle still has a sense of helplessness, and BTC has been gradually weakening. This performance itself is a strong signal of a bearish trend.

Looking back at history, do you remember the scene during the last Bitcoin peak? Double top formation → sharp decline → rebound lasting two months → false breakout followed by a second crash. From the current chart, it seems this story is playing out again. Moreover, according to cyclical规律, a complete cycle every 4 years is almost an iron law. Every rally has been said to be different this time, but in the end, the market always teaches a lesson.

Bitcoin ultimately relies on consensus and cyclical discipline. Traders who do not follow discipline are ultimately punished thoroughly. The risk points this time are quite clear: once US stocks start to pull back or consolidate, the decline in the crypto market could exceed everyone's expectations.

So what is the current strategy? If you still hold positions, it is wise to exit near resistance levels on rallies. If a second top is tested, you can add some short positions. For example, personally, I shorted BTC near $98,000 as a long-term position. My short-term positions at $95,000 have already been taken profit on, but I have been holding onto my long-term shorts—there's no need to chase the very top. We can see the results in one or two months.

The logic of short-term trading is actually very simple: open a short position at each obvious resistance level. I have seized several recent trading opportunities, such as shorting BTC near $98,000, shorting WLFI at 0.185, and shorting ZEC at 450. These coins were all shorted near the top. This is not luck, but long-term accumulated experience and execution. Grabbing two opportunities a day to make one trade, neither overtrading nor missing the rhythm, is the way to survive long-term in the crypto market.

The key is to understand the market's cyclicality, respect the规律, and avoid blindly bullish views. Look for opportunities in short-term fluctuations, but stick to principles in long-term布局.