#WhenWillBTCRebound?

When Will BTC Rebound? Current Bear Market Pressures and Potential Recovery Paths

Bitcoin is currently in a deep correction, and many investors are asking the same question: "When will it rebound?" As of early February 2026, BTC is trading around the $70,000–$71,000 range—down roughly 40-45% from its all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 in October 2025. This marks one of the lowest levels since November 2024, fueling intense "bear market low" debates. Short-term selling pressure dominates, but historical cycles, technical signals, and macro factors offer some glimmers of hope for recovery. My view: This could be the peak of panic selling, but a true rebound will require patience and clear catalysts.

Let's recap the current situation first. Bitcoin has been under heavy pressure since President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Warsh's hawkish background—emphasizing balance sheet reduction (QT), inflation control, and higher real interest rates—has sparked fears of tighter liquidity. The result: BTC dropped from the mid-$80,000s to briefly below $70,000, with ETF outflows accelerating, miner sales increasing, and overall risk appetite waning. Analysts like those at Citi and others highlight key levels around $70,000 as critical; a sustained break below could push toward $60,000–$65,000 or lower in bearish scenarios (some even mention $50,000s based on chart patterns reminiscent of 2022). Market sentiment is at "extreme fear," on-chain data looks weak (rising exchange reserves, low SOPR indicating profit-taking pressure), and the broader crypto market has shed hundreds of billions in value.

However, history shows Bitcoin often makes strong rebounds after bear market dips. The 4-year halving cycle remains relevant: post-halving rallies are typically followed by 50-80% corrections, yet recoveries follow. The 2022 bear saw a drop from $69,000 to $16,000 before the 2023-2025 bull run. The current drawdown is in the 40-60% range of prior cycles—more like a "hibernation" phase than total collapse. Models like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart suggest fair value by late February 2026 could be in the $120,000–$160,000 zone if it tracks long-term trends, with "still cheap" bands around $95,000–$122,000. Some forecasts point to potential moves toward $100,000–$105,000 by end of February if key resistances are reclaimed.

What are the main catalysts for a rebound?

1. **Fed Policy and Warsh's Approach**: If Warsh gets confirmed (Senate process ongoing) and shows pragmatism—perhaps aligning somewhat with Trump's preference for lower rates (noting he's sounded more dovish recently)—liquidity could ease, supporting risk assets. Fed pivots have historically propelled BTC higher.

2. **Technical Support and Bounce Signals**: The $70,000 psychological level is pivotal—if it holds, we could see a "flush and reclaim" pattern. Short-term bounces (e.g., back to $76,000–$78,000) have already occurred, but sell walls remain strong. Breaking above $80,000 could shift momentum decisively.

3. **Macro Improvements**: U.S. tech weakness and ETF outflows are weighing heavy, but a turnaround in global risk appetite (e.g., renewed rate-cut expectations) could lift BTC as a high-beta asset. February has historically averaged +14% returns for BTC—similar seasonality might play out this year.

The worst-case scenario? Aggressive QT, continued miner capitulation, and a break below $70,000 could test $60,000–$65,000 (or lower in recession fears, with some bears eyeing $40,000–$50,000 extremes). But Bitcoin's core strength shines in stress tests: it acts as a hedge against central bank errors and excessive money printing.

My personal take: Don't panic—this feels like a potential bear market low, but not necessarily the absolute bottom. Dip buyers have a window around current levels if $70,000 holds. A meaningful rebound is more likely in Q2–Q3 2026, perhaps as Warsh's policies clarify and liquidity stabilizes. Short-term volatility will stay high, but for long-term HODLers, this correction could fuel the next bull leg.

What do you think? Are you waiting for $80,000+ confirmation, or expecting more downside first?