Pasokan yang Ketat Sedang Berlangsung: Institusi Membeli, Rakyat Biasa Melarikan Diri

Supply Tightening, Retail Panic — Two Things Happening Simultaneously

Michael Saylor tweeted, bringing an old topic back to the forefront: BTC is running out of supply, and accumulation has already begun. 15 leading crypto accounts reposted and spread the news, prompting the market to reassess exchange reserves — which have fallen below 2.708 million BTC, the lowest in 8 years. This is not social media hype. Last week, ETF net inflows reached $1.1 billion, and MicroStrategy bought 3,015 BTC at an average price of about $67,700; meanwhile, the Fear Index remains at 13. TradingView and Coinreaders’ reports on the “supply black hole” are also fermenting — wallets with 3.7 million BTC long lost, and chips locked in institutional vaults, roughly 6 million BTC are actually out of circulation.

In terms of price, BTC first rose 6% to $70,500, then retreated to around $68,000 for consolidation. Short-term fluctuations caused by Middle East tensions and government wallet transfers, but the $63,000 support held.

Macro fundamentals are mostly noise: crude oil prices rising, tensions between Iran and Israel, BTC briefly dropped to $63,000, but the impact quickly faded. Short-term macro events cannot change the structural supply issues. On-chain data shows SOPR at 0.982, indicating most recent sellers are at a loss — historically, this is closer to bottom rather than pre-crash; funding rates are flat; spot daily trading volume dropped from $81 billion to $46 billion within three days. Such a contraction in volume usually signals a big move is coming soon. Samson Mow did a calculation: 21 million BTC divided among 8.1 billion people, about 259,259 satoshis per person — the math checks out but is unrelated to pricing; the key point is that institutions buy and hold, not sell, so these chips have effectively exited the market.

• The Fear Index has been in the “Extreme Fear” zone (6-21) for several weeks, which is typical at bottoms. ETF buyers’ cost basis is around 50-52k, providing passive support downward.
• Saylor’s tweet was amplified by media, MSTR’s stock price rose 1.11%, BTC remains steady at 70k, narratives are driving capital flows.
• Looking ahead: by 2035, about 99% of Bitcoin will be mined; if institutional demand maintains current pace, supply will become increasingly tight.

Current market pricing bias: everyone focuses on the Fear Index, ignoring that ETF is creating supply shocks. If $70k can hold, the risk-reward at $80k is better. Strategically, prefer spot over leverage, as funding rates do not offer extra returns.

Conclusion: If you are still a retail observer, you are already a step late. The panic selling caused by extreme fear is being absorbed by institutions like BlackRock. Currently, patience and institutional holding are advantageous. $100,000 is not guaranteed, but the arithmetic of supply is continuously tightening.

Judgment: This story is mid-way but far from over; retail investors risking waiting may miss good prices, while long-term holders and institutions hold the advantage. Trading funds should wait for $70k to hold and when yields are below 4.2%, to go long.