Summary

• The Federal Reserve (FOMC) kept the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with one member voting for a rate cut, indicating early internal disagreements. Jerome Powell emphasized heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and stated that the Fed will continue to rely on data and remain open to policy adjustments.

• Industrial production growth slowed to 0.2%, indicating weakening economic momentum, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to a six-month high, showing regional resilience. However, rising energy costs may compress profit margins and lead markets to reassess economic outlooks.

• Cryptocurrency markets continued to weaken last week, with BTC down 6.8%, ETH down 5.8%, and the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 8, entering extreme fear territory, typically associated with late-stage declines or potential capitulation.

• Resolv Labs infrastructure was attacked, with attackers using leaked private keys to mint approximately $80 million in unsecured USR stablecoins. USR temporarily de-pegged to $0.025 but later partially recovered.

• Morgan Stanley filed an amended S-1 for a spot Bitcoin ETF, indicating ongoing expansion of Wall Street’s distribution channels for digital assets.

• Grayscale submitted an S-1 for the Hyperliquid ETF, intensifying competition around HYPE-related financial products.

• Kalshi completed over $1 billion in funding, with a valuation of $22 billion, highlighting the rapid institutionalization of prediction markets as an emerging financial sector.

Macro Overview

The Fed holds rates steady; February industrial production slows to 0.2%

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50–3.75%. Chairman Powell emphasized data dependence and noted signs of inflation improvement, while highlighting geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East that could impact the US economy. One member, Stephen Miran, voted for a 25 basis point rate cut due to increasing concerns about a softening labor market. This disagreement suggests more internal debate about economic strength. Markets are beginning to price in the possibility of rate cuts in 2026 if economic data weakens further and geopolitical tensions ease. The Fed has indicated readiness to adjust policy if risks escalate.

In February 2026, US industrial production grew by 0.2%, a slowdown from 0.7% in January. Manufacturing output also increased by 0.2%, with total industrial output up 1.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose from 16.3 in February to 18.1 in March, the highest in six months. This suggests that despite weaker monthly data, manufacturing sentiment has improved.

These figures indicate that economic growth is cooling from previously strong levels but has not yet declined sharply. Stable YoY growth and improved sentiment support the Fed’s more patient stance, as manufacturing appears able to withstand current conditions without immediate rate cuts.

The S&P 500 fell 1.9% this week, the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.1%, and the Dow also dropped 2.1%. The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June last year. Oil prices surged this week, with Brent crude briefly reaching $119 per barrel before retreating, but remaining above $100. The market correction marks a clear reversal of the optimism driven by the Fed’s rate hold.

Tensions in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and offsetting recent positive CPI data. The break below the 200-day moving average also signals weakening market sentiment and increased worries about economic growth amid rising energy costs.

Next week, core PCE and PMI data will be released, with energy prices remaining a key variable. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, rising oil prices could push inflation higher and make rate cuts more difficult for the Fed. PMI data is also important. Manufacturing sentiment remains stable, but rising energy costs may begin to squeeze profit margins. (1)

Dollar Index (DXY)

Against the backdrop of the Fed holding rates steady and emphasizing Middle East uncertainties, the Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.92% to 99.503, with market expectations for further rate hikes declining. Meanwhile, oil prices rose to $119, raising stagflation fears, and even under typical safe-haven demand, the dollar remained under pressure. Markets are also pricing in the possibility of earlier rate cuts in 2026. (2)

US 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields

Driven by soaring energy prices and Middle East tensions, US Treasury yields rose sharply. The 10-year yield reached 4.411%, reflecting increased inflation concerns. Ongoing cost pressures challenge the previous narrative of imminent rate cuts, prompting investors to reassess Fed policy expectations. (3)

Gold

Gold prices fell 10.25% to $4,491 per ounce, marking the worst weekly performance in 43 years. Despite geopolitical tensions, the combination of the Fed’s rate hold and reduced short-term rate cut expectations weakened safe-haven demand. A weaker dollar also failed to provide significant support. (4)

Crypto Market Overview

Mainstream Assets

BTC价格

ETH价格

ETH/BTC Ratio

BTC declined 6.8% last week, ETH down 5.8%. Despite the overall market correction, ETH/BTC rose 1.2% to 0.03, indicating ETH outperformed BTC. In terms of capital flows, spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $767.33 million, while spot ETH ETFs received $160.8 million. (5)

Meanwhile, market sentiment worsened further, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping from 23 last week to 8, remaining in extreme fear territory. (6)

Total Market Cap

Cryptocurrency Market Cap

Market cap excluding BTC and ETH

Market cap excluding the top ten tokens

Last week, total crypto market cap declined 5.5%. Excluding BTC and ETH, the market fell 2.9%; excluding the top ten tokens, the broader altcoin market declined 4.4%.

A key event was Resolv Labs confirming its infrastructure was attacked, with attackers using leaked private keys to mint about $80 million in unsecured USR stablecoins. Reported actual losses are around $500,000, with approximately $141 million assets remaining intact and no collateral withdrawals detected. Following the incident, USR briefly de-pegged to $0.025 before partially recovering. (7)

Top 30 Crypto Assets Performance

Source: Coinmarketcap and Gate Ventures, as of March 23, 2026

Among the top 30 assets, average price declined about 4.5%, with only TRX, LEO, and HYPE showing gains.

New Token Launches

Katana (KAT) is the native token of Katana Network, a DeFi-focused chain aiming to consolidate liquidity and align user activity with core applications like Morpho and Sushi. The token captures ecosystem value through fee sharing and incentive distribution, with potential broader roles in network security and on-chain value accumulation in the future. (8)

KAT launched at around $0.013, peaked near $0.018, and is currently trading between $0.011 and $0.012, with a fully diluted valuation of approximately $120 million. It is listed on major exchanges including Binance, OKX, and Coinbase.

Key Crypto Highlights

Morgan Stanley files amended S-1 for spot Bitcoin ETF, expanding Wall Street distribution channels

Morgan Stanley has filed a second amended S-1 for its proposed spot Bitcoin ETF (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, MSBT), bringing the product closer to listing on NYSE Arca after regulatory approval. The filing shows the ETF will raise $1 million by issuing 50,000 initial shares to 购买比特币. Authorized participants include Jane Street, Virtu Americas, and Macquarie Capital, supporting creation and redemption mechanisms and maintaining NAV alignment. This move signifies Morgan Stanley’s shift from solely distributing third-party Bitcoin ETFs to launching its own, enabling direct management fee income and leveraging its extensive advisory network for distribution. (9)

Grayscale files S-1 for Hyperliquid ETF, intensifying competition around HYPE-linked products

Grayscale has submitted an S-1 for a spot Hyperliquid ETF, joining Bitwise and 21Shares in competing for the market of financial products tied to HYPE tokens. The fund plans to trade as GHYP on Nasdaq, with Coinbase as custodian, though management fees are not disclosed. Unlike Bitwise’s revised plan, Grayscale’s current proposal does not include staking but may add it later, providing investors with additional yield outside of token price exposure. (10)

NYSE removes crypto ETF options cap, increasing institutional trading flexibility

NYSE Arca and NYSE American have eliminated the position and exercise limits (25,000 contracts) for options on 11 Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with the SEC allowing immediate implementation without the usual 30-day waiting period. The new rules also permit these products to be traded as FLEX options, allowing institutions to customize strike prices, expiration dates, and exercise styles. Major funds involved include BlackRock’s iBIT, Fidelity, ARK 21Shares, Grayscale, and Bitwise. (11)

Major Investment & Funding Updates

Bluesky discloses $100M Series B funding, expanding open social infrastructure

Bluesky announced closing a $100 million Series B led by Bain Capital Crypto, with participation from Alumni Ventures, True Ventures, Anthos Capital, Bloomberg Beta, and the Knight Foundation. Funds will be used to grow the team and further develop Bluesky’s applications and the underlying AT Protocol. This marks Bluesky’s transition from a social app to an open social infrastructure layer, with user base growing from 13 million to over 43 million, an ecosystem with about 20 billion public records, over 400,000 SDK downloads per month, and over 1,000 ATProto-based apps weekly. (12)

Kalshi raises over $1 billion, valuation hits $22 billion, prediction markets accelerate mainstream adoption

Kalshi reportedly raised over $1 billion in a new funding round led by Coatue Management, valuing the company at $22 billion—doubling from approximately $11 billion in December last year. Despite political and legal regulatory pressures, investors remain bullish on prediction market infrastructure, believing Kalshi’s federally regulated exchange model could become a mainstream financial platform rather than a niche speculative market. Kalshi’s rapid expansion into sports and event contracts has attracted large trading firms and data partners, positioning it at the forefront of institutionalized prediction markets. (13)

RoboForce raises $52 million to accelerate industrial “robot labor” deployment

RoboForce completed $52 million in funding, bringing total funding to $67 million. Led by YZi Labs, investors include Jerry Yang, along with existing backers Myron Scholes, Gary Rieschel, and Carnegie Mellon University. The company aims to deploy general-purpose physical AI robots in industrial scenarios with labor shortages, repetitive tasks, and risk factors, targeting sectors like solar, data centers, mining, shipping, manufacturing, and logistics. Funds will support developing robot foundational models, building data flywheels, expanding production capacity, and scaling pilot projects into revenue streams. (14)

Venture Market Data

Last week, 11 deals closed, with 7 in Infra, 2 in Social, and 1 each in Data and DeFi.

Weekly Venture Deal Summary, Source: Cryptorank and Gate Ventures, as of March 23, 2026

Total disclosed funding was $1.18 billion, with four deals undisclosed. The largest was in Infra, totaling $1.02 billion, with Kalshi’s $1 billion deal being the biggest single investment.

Weekly Venture Deal Summary, Source: Cryptorank and Gate Ventures, as of March 23, 2026

In the fourth week of March 2026, total funding reached $1.18 billion, a 1079% increase from the previous week.

About Gate Ventures

Gate Ventures is the venture capital arm of Gate, focusing on investments in decentralized infrastructure, ecosystems, and applications, aiming to reshape the Web 3.0 era. Collaborating with global industry leaders, Gate Ventures empowers innovative teams and startups to redefine social and financial interactions.

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Disclaimer:

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Reference Links

1. S&P Week Ahead Economic Preview,

2. DXY Index, TradingView,

3. US 10 Year Bond Yield, TradingView,

4. Gold Price, TradingView,

5. BTC & ETH ETF Inflows,

6. BTC Greed and Fear Index,

7. Resolv confirms platform attack and suspension of protocol functions,

8. Katana tokenomics,

9. Morgan Stanley files amended S-1 for spot Bitcoin ETF as Wall Street distribution expands,

10. Grayscale files S-1 for Hyperliquid ETF as competition for HYPE-based products builds,

11. NYSE exchanges remove crypto ETF options cap as institutional trading flexibility expands,

12. Bluesky discloses $100M Series B as open social infrastructure scales beyond the core app,

13. Kalshi raises over $1B at a $22B valuation as prediction markets move deeper into mainstream finance,

14. RoboForce raises $52M to scale industrial “robo-labor” as physical AI moves toward real-world deployment,