I observed an interesting dynamic in the cryptocurrency market over the weekend. Despite Bitcoin and Ethereum being under pressure, I realized that the situation isn't as bad compared to traditional risk assets. Especially with the intensification of Middle East tensions and the rapid rise in oil prices, Bitcoin and Ethereum now appear to be much less risky than volatile commodities like oil.

Brent crude oil futures reached as high as $116.71 during the week. Trump's statements regarding access to Iranian oil resources and increasing conflicts in the Middle East have completely shifted the energy market to a different level. Attacks on infrastructure facilities in Kuwait show that this risk is not just on paper. At the same time, US bond yields are falling; the 10-year bond dropped to 4.40%, and the 2-year bond to 3.87%. Capital outflows have begun, and safe havens are being sought.

At this point, it is necessary to reassess the state of the crypto market. Bitcoin traded in the $65,000-$67,000 range, and Ethereum between $1,938 and $2,018. Yes, it fluctuated within a narrow range over the weekend, but this actually indicates stability. While traditional investors rush into assets like oil and bonds, Bitcoin and Ethereum did not fluctuate as wildly. In an environment where market risk appetite is shrinking, crypto assets behaved more moderately than expected.

Meanwhile, fintech companies are making significant investments in crypto infrastructure. Mastercard plans to acquire BVNK for $1.8 billion; Stripe is advancing integration of machine payments within the Solana ecosystem. Visa is also developing payment tools for AI agents. These developments show increasing confidence in blockchain-based payment systems within the corporate world. Ripple’s support for fiat and stable cryptocurrencies within a single system reinforces this trend.

Tokenized US Treasuries continue to heat up. The RWA process is accelerating, and these assets are moving from experimental products to institutional portfolio tools. As a result, Bitcoin and Ethereum appear less volatile than traditional risk assets like oil, and institutional infrastructure is strengthening. The weekend’s weak performance is misleading; in fact, the crypto market is becoming structurally stronger.