#gate廣場五月交易分享 Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Surges to Three-Month High Driven by Derivatives

Bitcoin prices surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since late January. U.S.-listed spot ETFs saw $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking five consecutive weeks of positive inflows. Traders should remain cautious, as the rally in Bitcoin prices is mainly driven by demand for perpetual contracts, while the spot market remains in contraction. The report indicates that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern seen in the early stages of the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since late January. Institutional demand supported this price increase, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording over $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching a key psychological level.
Analysts point out that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market. Institutional demand remains strong, supporting continued price growth, with Bitcoin reaching a high of $80,635 on Monday after a mild consolidation last week.
Institutional demand supported the price rally and remains robust. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $153.87 million in inflows last week, continuing a streak of inflows for five weeks since early April. If this trend persists this week, Bitcoin could see further price increases.
Driven by Derivatives
CryptoQuant’s weekly report last week stated that Bitcoin’s April price rally was entirely fueled by increased demand for perpetual contracts. Recent Bitcoin price increases are more of a speculative rebound rather than driven by fundamentals, as spot demand remains in contraction. CryptoQuant analysts noted, “The demand for perpetual contracts was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price rise in April, while spot demand has continued to shrink. This configuration has historically been associated with unsustainable price gains during bear markets.” “This divergence—rising perpetual contract demand while spot demand contracts—indicates that the price increase is leveraged-driven rather than from new coin accumulation.
Historically, this setup lacks the structural basis needed to sustain a price rally and is usually resolved through adjustments after perpetual contract positions are unwound.” The current market structure resembles that of early 2022, when demand for perpetual contracts surged alone while spot demand contracted, a pattern that foreshadowed several months of price declines afterward.
Analysts summarized, “While this similarity does not guarantee identical outcomes, it suggests that the current demand structure aligns with bearish precedents in history. Using on-chain demand decomposition applied across cycles, this pattern is seen as a reliable early indicator of price vulnerability.”
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Approaches Key Psychological Level
As of Monday’s writing, Bitcoin traded above $79,700, maintaining a short-term bullish bias, with prices consolidating above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are clustered around the mid-$70k range. Bitcoin’s price is also above the 50% retracement level (drawn from January high to February low), at approximately $78,962, and near the top of a horizontal parallel channel at $75,680, indicating that the broader upward trend remains supported. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains solid at around 65, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has rebounded, suggesting bullish momentum remains active. Resistance levels above are first at the psychological level of $80,000, then near the 200-day EMA at $82,193, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at about $83,437, followed by a higher resistance at around $84,410. Initial support is seen at the 50% retracement level of $78,962, with additional buying support near the upper boundary of the channel at $75,680, and the 100-day EMA slightly below $75,900. Deeper corrections could test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day EMA, located between $74,432 and $74,487, then the broader channel bottom and the key support zone around $63,000.