AxelAdlerJr

Bitcoin’s nearest resistance zones are now clearly visible on-chain.
STH Realized Price: $82K
3m-6m Realized Price: $91K
BTC is currently trading at $77K, still below both key cost-basis levels.

Most market participants look at 10 metrics at once.
And still get the read wrong.
The problem is not the number of signals.
It is the order you read them in.
MVRV before NUPL.
SOPR before STH-SOPR.
Open Interest before Funding Rate.
Frame first. Details second.
Always.
Adler Premium EDU | Issue #19 👇

WTI crude futures rose to $95 per barrel and are on track for a weekly gain of more than 17%, as stalled US-Iran peace talks and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns.

GLOBAL RISK ON/OFF

The dollar index is heading for its first weekly gain in three weeks, as stalled peace efforts between the US and Iran supported demand for the safe-haven currency.

Gold is holding below $4,700 per ounce and is on track for a weekly decline of around 3%, as rising US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher and intensified inflation concerns.

Update
Bitcoin Price Forecast 5-Year Power Law Targets Halving-Epoch Band Compression

Bitcoin futures basis collapsed from +0.465% to +0.054% in just 4 days.
Funding Rate 7DMA is now at -0.00945% and still falling.
The market has stopped paying for long exposure. Short positioning is still building.
Bitcoin derivatives are losing bullish structure.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief 154 👇

Fresh leverage is back in BTC futures.
Positioning Index just hit a 4-month high. OI 30D Change is now +14.5%.
Not a squeeze. Not deleveraging. A real positioning rebuild.
Full breakdown -> ☕️ Morning Brief 153 👇

Gold remained below $4,800 per ounce and stayed under pressure as investors cautiously awaited the second round of talks between the United States and Iran ahead of the expiration of their two-week truce later this week.

$526M in BTC shorts were wiped out on April 17.
But the bigger signal came after the squeeze: Open Interest peaked at 319K BTC and then started falling.
That means leverage didn't reload. It flushed. It was a squeeze running out of fuel.
Full breakdown ☕️ ADLER AM#151👇

The BTC market got noticeably cleaner. ETF flows turned positive again. Sell pressure eased.
What exactly is keeping the market in limbo right now and what verdict Weekly Engine delivers this week - in the full breakdown below.
Weekly Engine #92 👇

🩸$526M in BTC shorts liquidated in 24 hours
Bitcoin rallied from $74K to $78K and the move had all the hallmarks of a classic short squeeze.
At 13:00 UTC alone, the market absorbed a single $357M short liquidation spike.
The takeaway: the rally was amplified not by fresh demand, but by the forced closure of bearish positions.
This matters because a short squeeze can accelerate price very rapidly - but on its own, it does not confirm sustainable spot demand.

LTH accumulated +3.06M BTC over the past 3 months.
But some older coins are now being sold at a loss.
This is not capitulation yet. But accumulation is no longer a clean signal of strength.
What is really happening inside the LTH cohort - in ☕️Adler AM #150 👇

98 days straight. Capital leaving Bitcoin.
Realized Cap down 3.23% since January.
Outflow slowing in April - reversal not confirmed.
What triggers a regime change - in today's brief 👇

Global Risk On/Off - a new block in Decision Terminal v1.6

Bitcoin structure just turned positive.
Bull-Bear Index flipped above zero. Bear zone: fully cleared.
But the internal picture still lags.
Price recovered. Network P/L sentiment is still underwater.
This is a recovery - not a new bull regime.
Morning Brief 148 👇