#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Tonight, will the US and Iran determine life or death? Bitcoin drops below $70k, and the crypto world stands at a crossroads!
A 45-minute ceasefire rumor just sent the market into a frenzy, but Iran poured cold water on it, causing Bitcoin to fall below $70k.
As of the Asian trading session on April 7, Beijing time, Bitcoin broke below the $70k mark, falling over 2% to around $68,800. The previous day, after reports that the US and Iran were close to reaching a 45-day temporary ceasefire agreement, the price briefly surged past $70,000, almost entirely retracing those gains.
Mainstream assets like Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin also declined in sync.
The tug-of-war between news and price action has never been so intense.
01 The rollercoaster before the deadline
Tonight at 8 p.m. (Eastern Time), is the “final deadline” for US-Iran negotiations set by President Trump. Over the past 72 hours, the market has been squeezed back and forth twice:
· First round (early April 6): Axios reports that the US and Iran are close to reaching a 45-day temporary ceasefire. Bitcoin surged from $68,000 to above $71,000. CoinGlass data shows that approximately $196.7 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated during this rally.
· Second round (evening of April 6): Iran publicly responds—rejecting the ceasefire proposal and insisting on a comprehensive, permanent end to the conflict and sanctions removal. Market sentiment sharply reversed, with Bitcoin dropping from above $71,000 to below $69,000.
As of press time, Bitcoin is quoted at about $68,800, with approximately $229 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours. Both bulls and bears have suffered heavy losses.
02 Why can US-Iran tensions sway the crypto market?
Many ask: How does a Middle East conflict relate to cryptocurrencies?
The core logic is a single chain: Hormuz Strait → Oil prices → Inflation expectations → Federal Reserve interest rates → Risk assets.
The transmission speed of this chain has been compressed to minutes in the crypto market.
Since the conflict erupted in late February, Brent crude has risen about 50%, with WTI reaching as high as $115 per barrel. The surge in oil prices has heightened global inflation expectations, delaying the Fed’s rate hikes—liquidity easing, which is precisely the “fuel” crypto markets crave.
Grayscale’s latest report points out that oil shocks are “delaying rate cut expectations, causing investors to remain cautious,” and the crypto market is in a “wait-and-see mode”—geopolitical clouds are overshadowing an otherwise improving macro backdrop.
In short: rising oil prices pressure crypto prices; falling oil prices ease them.
03 Crossroads: Two possible outcomes, two directions
After tonight at 8 p.m., which path will the market take?
🔴 Scenario 1: Negotiations break down, conflict escalates
If Iran ultimately rejects the deal, or the US takes military action, the Strait of Hormuz could face blockade. Oil prices will continue to soar, inflation expectations will worsen, the Fed will be forced to keep interest rates high, and risk assets will decline across the board.
· Bitcoin will test support levels around $68,000–$69,000
· If the situation worsens, it could dip into the $60,000 range
· The crypto market will face a new round of intense sell-offs
🟢 Scenario 2: Temporary agreement reached
If both sides unexpectedly agree (though the probability is very low), the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, and oil prices might fall below $100. Inflation pressures would ease, the Fed’s rate cut space would open, and risk appetite would rebound.
· Bitcoin could target the $75,000 region
· This would align with the upward momentum from the expected passage of the US “Clarity Act” in late April
What is the current market probability?
Forecast platforms estimate only a 1.1% chance of a ceasefire being reached on April 7. Most analysts believe that a breakdown in negotiations or an extension of the “final deadline” is more likely.
04 Support levels and variables: The market isn’t all panic
Despite short-term volatility, structural forces still support the market from below:
· Institutional accumulation: MicroStrategy has bought approximately 46,233 BTC since early March, while miners have produced only about 16,200 BTC in the same period—institutions’ buying volume is nearly three times the new issuance.
· Spot ETF capital inflows: Bitcoin spot ETFs listed in the US saw net inflows of $471.3 million on Monday, continuing last week’s trend.
· Iran accepts crypto payments: An intriguing detail—starting April 6, Iran will accept cryptocurrencies for paying tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. This is both a challenge to dollar dominance and an objective reinforcement of crypto’s geopolitical narrative.
05 Historical patterns: Pulsed shocks won’t change the long-term trend
Historical experience shows that geopolitical conflicts impact the crypto market in “pulsed” waves—intense short-term shocks that decay quickly.
· Days 1–3 (volatile phase): News-driven, high volatility, large liquidations—we are in this stage.
· Weeks 1–2 (emotion digestion phase): The market assesses the actual severity of the conflict, with wide fluctuations, seeking a new equilibrium.
· About two weeks later (narrative shift phase): Unless the conflict escalates into a “full-blown crisis” that fundamentally alters the macro environment, the focus will shift back to interest rate policies, economic data, and crypto’s supply-demand structure.
Since early March, Bitcoin has generally fluctuated between $65,000 and $75,000. The short-term breakout direction depends on tonight’s outcome, but the medium- and long-term trend is ultimately determined by global liquidity cycles and adoption rates.
In conclusion
Tonight at 8 p.m., regardless of the outcome, will be a stress test for the crypto market.
Geopolitical black swans are unpredictable, but risk management is within your control.
