#ETH Intraday Analysis 1️⃣ Structural Interpretation The price is generally oscillating around 3180-3070 USD, without a clear directional trend. From the ETH/BTC ratio, ETH has not been significantly re-priced relative to BTC, which is one of the reasons why ETH's structure appears to "follow BTC but with weaker momentum." 2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics Observation Capital Flow: Similar to BTC, ETH's inflows and outflows are relatively stable, with no obvious large-scale inflows or outflows. Overall, holders are still in a wait-and-see and gradual accumulation phase. On-Chain Dynamics: No large transfers or rapid accumulation are observed on-chain, indicating that large investors have not collectively entered or exited in the short term. Exchange Situation: ETH liquidity on exchanges remains stable, with no abnormal increase in inflow or outflow. The overall capital and on-chain data suggest ETH is also in a slow adjustment with low activity. 3️⃣ Intraday Observation & Key Level Projection Bullish Perspective: If ETH can retest and hold above 3070-3095 USD, then consider small long positions, with stop-loss placed at a break below 3070. If it breaks below 3180 on the 4-hour chart, look towards around 3480 above. Optimal entry for longs is in the 2970-2910 range. 4️⃣ Risk Warning High Volatility Risk: ETH's amplitude is usually greater than BTC, and during sideways trading, it is prone to larger local jumps. Correlation Risk: ETH is still largely influenced by BTC trends. When BTC experiences rapid adjustments, ETH often sees amplified declines. False Breakout Risk: Signals of rebound and breakdown for ETH in consolidation zones are easily false signals. Confirm thoroughly before chasing highs or lows.

#加密市场开年反弹 $BTC ‌ Personal opinion: The 2026 crypto market is a structural bull market, not a broad-based crazy bull, but rather an excellent opportunity for trap trading and market dumps. 1. Core judgment: 2026 will be a institution-driven structural bull market, with funds only recognizing blue-chip coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. A broad-based rally led by retail investors is unlikely. 2. Rhythm projection: Federal Reserve rate cuts + policy benefits + ETF capital inflows will likely cause a wave of Bitcoin price increases. (It's unlikely to dump at the start of the year, as that would hinder subsequent capital inflows.) 3. Bullish drivers: Fed rate cuts release liquidity, continuous inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs cause supply-demand imbalance; US crypto regulatory framework gradually clarifies, institutions and enterprises increase holdings to support demand. 4. Bearish risks: Repeated inflation may lead to rate cuts falling short of expectations, liquidity tightening suppresses risk assets; under the four-year halving cycle theory, 2026 may be a year of market consolidation, with BTC potentially retracing to the $65,000-$75,000 range; low-liquidity altcoins lack capital support and are likely to be淘汰 by the market. 5. Trading strategies: Short-term—shorting high positions during trap rallies, mainly going long on dips; long-term—accumulating short positions, adding 7-8% on each 5% increase, with leverage not exceeding 30%. Referring to a four-hour structure chart from November-December last year, it rose for two weeks and then dropped back in a day. The master of position flipping focuses on structural analysis, not short-term small waves, which are meaningless. First learn technical analysis, and I will guide you to precise levels in the second half of the year!

Short-term operations, please ensure proper entry protection! There are two strategies: one is a split approach, with half running and half protecting capital; the other is a capital-preserving trailing stop profit and loss strategy! (Whenever the price moves up or down away from the cost, move in the same direction by 5 points to protect profits) Do not get emotional! Anti-positioning will inevitably lead to a breakout sooner or later!