HBAR price forecast for September 2025: What awaits?

Hedera (HBAR) has gone through a challenging month of August as selling pressure prevailed. The strong sell-off has caused the price to fall and limited any bounce back attempts.

However, historical data shows that HBAR sometimes bounces back after prolonged periods of weakness. This opens up the hope that September may bring a recovery if market conditions improve.

Notable Performance of Hedera in the Past

The quarterly performance of HBAR this year has been significantly stronger compared to 3 years ago. Despite the challenges in August, this token has maintained better momentum than previous cycles, reflecting a gradual improvement in its bounce back capability. Q3 "green" will mark an important milestone for the development of the network.

If HBAR closes Q3 with an increase, it will be the first quarter to record profits in 4 years and also the first "green" quarter of 2025. This result could be a signal that investor sentiment is improving, despite the short-term volatility still being present.

Quarterly profits of HBAR | Source: CryptoRankTechnical indicators show challenges ahead. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates strong outflows dominating HBAR over the past two months. Continuous selling pressure is one of the main reasons for the token's decline, limiting any momentum that could arise from network growth or broader adoption.

CMF HBAR | Source: TradingViewSelling pressure indicates two major issues: (1) the increasing skepticism among investors, (2) the impact from the overall market sell-off.

In particular, the deep fall of Bitcoin further amplifies the pressure as HBAR has a correlation with BTC at 0.92. This means that the performance of Hedera heavily depends on the price movements of Bitcoin, and the outlook for September will be closely tied to BTC's ability to bounce back.

Correlation between HBAR and Bitcoin | Source: TradingView## HBAR faces challenges

At the current time, HBAR is trading around $0.214, down 9% from last month. The continuous outflow of capital indicates weakness, making this altcoin more vulnerable. If the sell-off continues, HBAR could fall back to $0.205, increasing short-term bearish pressure.

Technical analysis of HBAR | Source: TradingViewIn the past, September has been an unlucky time for HBAR. The token has fallen about 10% during this period, with an average drop of 5%. Based on this pattern, the likelihood of another price drop remains high, consistent with technical signals indicating that support levels are weakening.

Monthly profit of HBAR | Source: CryptoRankIf capital flows back in and investor sentiment improves, HBAR could bounce back to regain the support level of $0.230. Maintaining this level will be crucial to trigger the recovery.

To completely reverse, this altcoin must surpass the $0.271 mark or higher, signaling new strength after many months of a falling market.

Vincent