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The Pokémon cards experienced a big pump of 10 times in 2 days. Is it real demand or false sentiment?
Pokémon card platform tokens on Solana $CARDS skyrocketed nearly 10 times in two days. This article explores whether its success comes from real card trading needs, or mainly from its game nature of the "blind box" business, and the emotional drive of KOL shouts. (Synopsis: Gold, Bitcoin and Pokémon cards, who is the "perfect collateral" of this era?) (Background added: Pokémon TCG Pocket's revenue exceeded 20 million magnesium in the first week: Pokémon's top IP combined with NFTs has a show?) When players in the cryptocurrency circle paid attention to Trump's health doubts and waited for possible gaming opportunities, a token called $CARDS attracted the attention of players with a maximum rise of nearly 10 times from September 2 to the present, and the market value once exceeded $400 million. $CARDS is the token of Collector Crypt, the physical Pokémon card trading platform on Solana. Collector Crypt announced the completion of an undisclosed seed funding round in February 2023 with participation from GSR, Big Brain Holdings, FunFair Ventures, Genesis Block Ventures, Master Ventures Investment Management, StarLaunch, and Telos. Although it was 2 and a half years ago to complete the seed round, the pre-sale of $CARDS only started last week. 5% of the total token (1 billion $CARDS ) was allocated to the presale, which eventually raised a total of 16,500 SOLs ( approximately $3.5 million ), with 718 people participating in the presale. In addition, 2.5% of the total 20% tokens allocated to the community are open for collection at the same time as the pre-sale tokens. According to the official tokenomics, if the tokens held by the project party are not counted in the initial circulation ( the project party claims that there are no plans to sell the ), the current circulation of $CARDS is about 212 million. At market price, the pre-seed round, seed round, and tokens unlocked by advisors at TGE are currently worth about $1.67 million Officials said there are no plans to sell tokens At present, if you look at what the project itself does, the Pokémon card chain transactions made by Collector Crypt are not so new. Courtyard.io on Polygon has also been running for over 2 years. Last month, Courtyard's monthly sales just hit a new high of about $78.43 million. Since February, Courtyard has generated more than $40 million in monthly sales. Rapid growth this year may have contributed to Courtyard's large financing. On July 28, Fortune reported that Courtyard completed a $30 million Series A financing, led by Forerunner Ventures and followed by existing investors such as NEA and Y Combinator. We reported on Courtyard in August 2023 when it first attracted the attention of a small number of NFT players. At that time, there were already NFT players who obtained Pokémon cards through Courtyard and staked loans on the chain. Outside of Collector Crypt and Courtyard, crypto projects doing similar business include Beezie, Drip, Emporium, and phygitals. However, Collector Crypt is the only one of these projects to issue tokens, giving $CARDS a head start. Of course, Collector Crypt itself is quite competent, and last month, its monthly trading volume reached about $44 million, which is not too far from Courtyard. You may be wondering, is there really so much real demand for trading Pokémon cards on-chain? The answer is no. Whether it's Collector Crypt or Courtyard, their actual money-making business is a game-style "blind box." The picture above is Collector Crypt's Pokémon card gacha machine system. For about $60, there is an 80% chance of drawing a card worth $30 to $60, a 15% chance of drawing a card worth $60 to $110, a 4% chance of drawing a card worth $110 to $250, and a 1% chance of drawing a card worth $250 to $2,000. What should I do if I draw a bad card? It doesn't matter, you can sell it directly back to Collector Crypt at a discount of 85% and continue to draw. Collector Crypt's raffle system officially launched in January and generated sales of about $2 million that month, $12.55 million in March, $22.31 million in May, and $43.89 million last month. Last month, the Collector Crypt card marketplace generated only about $120,000. On Collector Crypt's bar chart of total monthly sales, the share from the card trading market is almost completely invisible Although there is no direct lottery revenue data, we can get a feel from Courtyard's previous interviews about how profitable the lottery business really is. Courtyard was interviewed by Fortune last month, and the data in the interview mentioned that Courtyard buys back raffle cards from customers at 90% of the value and then resells them to customers in the form of new raffle packs to make money, with the same card sold on the platform an average of 8 times a month. Still, it's hard to say that $CARDS's rally is a self-driven "price discovery" by the market. Because between the end of the pre-sale and 2 days ago, the price of the $CARDS has languished, and the players who participated in the pre-sale even felt that they had "lost again". But the addition of "leading big brother" Pow and Gake has greatly changed the direction of prices. After they all tweeted "support"$CARDS people began to believe it. At this point, we can summarize the $CARDS: – The business narrative is not new, but the revenue is quite beatable, and it is the absolute leader of the track on Solana. – The demand is real, but not the Pokémon card trading itself, but the game-style demand of the "lottery", as well as other items on the track. – Other projects on the same track have not yet been issued, so there is currently no competition for the same concept on the market. – The number of token holders is not large, and the current rise is more caused by the "leading big brother" shouting. There is real material, but it will take time to test whether $CARDS can continue its momentum after the sentiment-driven rally. Each other...