Arthur Hayes makes a major prediction: ETHFI and ENA may big pump 3000% and 5100% respectively in the next 4 years, Mega Matrix plans to raise $2 billion to create an ENA treasury.
Arthur Hayes recently expressed strong optimism about the future potential of the Ethereum liquid staking protocol ether.fi (ETHFI) and the synthetic dollar protocol Ethena (ENA). He predicts that by 2028, ETHFI could rise 34 times, and ENA could even achieve a 51 times increase. This article will analyze the investment value and risks of these two major tokens from multiple dimensions, including project fundamentals, on-chain data, market positioning, and institutional trends.
Arthur Hayes' Predictive Logic: Stablecoin Payments and Synthetic Assets as Dual Drivers
Hayes made this prediction a week ago, anchoring it to 2028—the year the current U.S. President Trump’s term ends. He believes that for stablecoins to achieve mass adoption, the key lies in the seamless payment experience, and ether.fi Cash is exactly such a solution: users can deposit stablecoins and spend directly using a Visa card, experiencing a level comparable to traditional payments.
He further pointed out that the current market value of ETHFI only reflects a tiny fraction of its potential. If the user penetration rate of ether.fi Cash increases from the current 0.07% to 1%, the price of ETHFI is expected to achieve a 34-fold rise. As for Ethena, its synthetic dollar USDe's market share continues to expand, and if it can challenge USDC's current 25% stablecoin market share, ENA could rise 51 times.
According to DeFiLlama data, the total locked value (TVL) of ETHFI recently surpassed 12 billion USD and is currently maintained at a high of 11.14 billion USD. A high TVL not only indicates that the protocol has strong capital efficiency and security but also attracts more institutions and users to participate, creating a positive feedback loop.
What is even more noteworthy is that the registered user base of its product ether.fi Cash has recently surged by 600%. This product allows users to use cryptocurrencies (including ETHFI) as collateral to directly spend via Visa cards, truly realizing "cryptocurrency as a payment tool". If this trend continues, the practicality and demand for ETHFI will increase simultaneously, providing long-term support for its price.
ENA Ecosystem Progress: USDe TVL Hits New High, Holder Retention Rate Significantly Improved
Ethena's TVL has surged to a historic high of $12.76 billion, reflecting strong market demand for its synthetic dollar USDe. Additionally, the holder retention rate of USDe (i.e., the proportion of addresses holding it for 30 consecutive days) has rebounded from a one-month low to 35%. Although the figure is still not high, the improving trend is clear, indicating that users are shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding, which is crucial for the stability of USDe and the value accumulation of ENA.
Valuation Comparison: Is ETHFI and ENA Undervalued?
As of the time of publication, ENA is priced at 0.17 USD, with a rise of 141% over the past 90 days; ETHFI is priced at 1.13 USD, with relatively small fluctuations during the same period. However, based on the ratio of market capitalization to TVL:
The market capitalization of ETHFI is only 500 million USD, which is significantly low compared to its 11.14 billion USD TVL;
ENA's market capitalization exceeds $4 billion, but there is still valuation space compared to its $12.76 billion TVL.
Although the 34x and 51x targets proposed by Hayes seem aggressive, the fundamental data supports the existence of long-term rise potential for both.
Institutional Trends: Mega Matrix Plans to Raise 2 Billion USD for Governance Token Layout
Recently, the listed company Mega Matrix submitted a universal shelf registration statement to the U.S. SEC, planning to raise up to $2 billion through the issuance of stocks, bonds, and other securities for the systematic acquisition of stablecoin governance tokens, with ENA as the primary target. This strategy aims to build the world's largest treasury of stablecoin governance tokens and participate in network governance by holding tokens.
This move reflects that traditional capital is accelerating its entry into the DeFi governance track, and ENA and ETHFI, as representative projects, may continue to receive institutional-level liquidity injections.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the optimistic outlook, investors should be aware of the following risks:
Regulatory uncertainty: Policy changes such as the US GENIUS Act may impact the development of stablecoins;
Market Volatility: The high volatility of crypto assets may lead to severe short-term price corrections;
Increased competition: USDe needs to face pressure from mature stable assets like USDT and USDC.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes' predictions are not baseless. ETHFI and ENA respectively position themselves in the liquid staking and synthetic asset sectors, with solid data on TVL rise and product innovation, and their valuation remains relatively healthy compared to fundamentals. If stablecoin payments adopt and the demand for synthetic assets continues to expand, both have the potential to become leading projects in the next cycle. Investors should closely monitor their ecological progress and institutional capital flows to seize long-term layout opportunities.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
Arthur Hayes makes a major prediction: ETHFI and ENA may big pump 3000% and 5100% respectively in the next 4 years, Mega Matrix plans to raise $2 billion to create an ENA treasury.
Arthur Hayes recently expressed strong optimism about the future potential of the Ethereum liquid staking protocol ether.fi (ETHFI) and the synthetic dollar protocol Ethena (ENA). He predicts that by 2028, ETHFI could rise 34 times, and ENA could even achieve a 51 times increase. This article will analyze the investment value and risks of these two major tokens from multiple dimensions, including project fundamentals, on-chain data, market positioning, and institutional trends.
Arthur Hayes' Predictive Logic: Stablecoin Payments and Synthetic Assets as Dual Drivers
Hayes made this prediction a week ago, anchoring it to 2028—the year the current U.S. President Trump’s term ends. He believes that for stablecoins to achieve mass adoption, the key lies in the seamless payment experience, and ether.fi Cash is exactly such a solution: users can deposit stablecoins and spend directly using a Visa card, experiencing a level comparable to traditional payments.
He further pointed out that the current market value of ETHFI only reflects a tiny fraction of its potential. If the user penetration rate of ether.fi Cash increases from the current 0.07% to 1%, the price of ETHFI is expected to achieve a 34-fold rise. As for Ethena, its synthetic dollar USDe's market share continues to expand, and if it can challenge USDC's current 25% stablecoin market share, ENA could rise 51 times.
ETHFI Fundamental Analysis: TVL Breaks 11 Billion USD, Ecological Expansion Rapidly
According to DeFiLlama data, the total locked value (TVL) of ETHFI recently surpassed 12 billion USD and is currently maintained at a high of 11.14 billion USD. A high TVL not only indicates that the protocol has strong capital efficiency and security but also attracts more institutions and users to participate, creating a positive feedback loop.
What is even more noteworthy is that the registered user base of its product ether.fi Cash has recently surged by 600%. This product allows users to use cryptocurrencies (including ETHFI) as collateral to directly spend via Visa cards, truly realizing "cryptocurrency as a payment tool". If this trend continues, the practicality and demand for ETHFI will increase simultaneously, providing long-term support for its price.
ENA Ecosystem Progress: USDe TVL Hits New High, Holder Retention Rate Significantly Improved
Ethena's TVL has surged to a historic high of $12.76 billion, reflecting strong market demand for its synthetic dollar USDe. Additionally, the holder retention rate of USDe (i.e., the proportion of addresses holding it for 30 consecutive days) has rebounded from a one-month low to 35%. Although the figure is still not high, the improving trend is clear, indicating that users are shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding, which is crucial for the stability of USDe and the value accumulation of ENA.
Valuation Comparison: Is ETHFI and ENA Undervalued?
As of the time of publication, ENA is priced at 0.17 USD, with a rise of 141% over the past 90 days; ETHFI is priced at 1.13 USD, with relatively small fluctuations during the same period. However, based on the ratio of market capitalization to TVL:
Although the 34x and 51x targets proposed by Hayes seem aggressive, the fundamental data supports the existence of long-term rise potential for both.
Institutional Trends: Mega Matrix Plans to Raise 2 Billion USD for Governance Token Layout
Recently, the listed company Mega Matrix submitted a universal shelf registration statement to the U.S. SEC, planning to raise up to $2 billion through the issuance of stocks, bonds, and other securities for the systematic acquisition of stablecoin governance tokens, with ENA as the primary target. This strategy aims to build the world's largest treasury of stablecoin governance tokens and participate in network governance by holding tokens.
This move reflects that traditional capital is accelerating its entry into the DeFi governance track, and ENA and ETHFI, as representative projects, may continue to receive institutional-level liquidity injections.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the optimistic outlook, investors should be aware of the following risks:
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes' predictions are not baseless. ETHFI and ENA respectively position themselves in the liquid staking and synthetic asset sectors, with solid data on TVL rise and product innovation, and their valuation remains relatively healthy compared to fundamentals. If stablecoin payments adopt and the demand for synthetic assets continues to expand, both have the potential to become leading projects in the next cycle. Investors should closely monitor their ecological progress and institutional capital flows to seize long-term layout opportunities.