Crypto Assets Market Observation: Bitcoin Fluctuates, Ethereum May Face Larger Rise

Market Overview

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed two regulatory bills for Crypto Assets, paving the way for the regulatory clarity that the industry has long sought. At the same time, it is reported that there are plans to open the 401(k) retirement market to investments in cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets, which could accelerate the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies.

Regarding monetary policy, there are differences within the Federal Reserve about whether to cut interest rates. Some officials support a rate cut in July, believing that inflation is close to the target and the economy may remain weak. However, most officials tend to favor keeping interest rates unchanged, concerned about the long-term impact of tariffs. The market expects a high probability that interest rates will remain unchanged this month.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin breaking through the range of $90,000 to $110,000 marks the start of the fourth wave of the bull market, driving a broad rise in other Crypto Assets. In the short term, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $115,000 and $123,218. On-chain data indicates that before entering the next round of correction, there may be an upward potential of 20% to 25% in price.

For Ethereum, analysts believe that breaking through the key resistance level of $4,000 could trigger a larger rise, potentially reaching $10,000. Institutional buying enthusiasm remains high, with several listed companies increasing or planning to increase their holdings in Ethereum.

In the altcoin market, AI-related concept coins continue to cause market fluctuations. Some emerging Meme coins saw their market value rise rapidly before experiencing a significant decline, indicating a high level of speculation.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $120,495 (Year-to-date +28.59%), Daily trading volume $51.841 billion
• Ethereum: $3,647.28 (Year-to-date +9.03%), Daily trading volume $67.357 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 60.9%, ETH 11.1%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.58%/49.42%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 610 million USD

ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$523 million, net inflow for 11 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$602 million, reaching the second highest in history

Market Highlights

• Hong Kong's first Bitcoin ETF will be listed on July 18.
• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contract trading pairs.
• Multiple tokens will be unlocked soon, among which the scale of TRUMP unlock is relatively large.
• Among the top 100 tokens by market cap, LDO, HBAR, CRO, and others have the highest rise.
• A trading platform will launch the ERA token.
• Notable investors are suspected of making large purchases of LDO and AAVE
• Multiple listed companies have increased or plan to increase their holdings of Ethereum.
• Emerging projects such as Plasma, Yala, etc. have announced their token economic models.
• ETH perpetual contract trading volume surpasses BTC
• Crypto Assets total market value exceeds 4 trillion USD

Overall, market sentiment is leaning towards optimism, with increasing institutional participation. Bitcoin may maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term, while Ethereum could see a bigger rise. Investors still need to pay attention to regulatory trends and changes in the macroeconomic situation.