Tom Lee: The Fed is reopening a moderate rate cut cycle after a long pause.

On August 31, the U.S. stock market will enter a critical period in the coming weeks, which will determine whether the latest round of rebound in U.S. stocks can continue. Employment data, key inflation indicators, and the Fed's interest rate decision will be released successively over the next 14 trading days, setting the market tone for investors. The current stock market seems to be at a crossroads: the S&P 500 index has just recorded its weakest monthly gain since March, and September has historically been its worst-performing month. At the same time, market fluctuations have nearly disappeared. The panic index VIX has only touched the key level of 20 once since the end of June. "It is correct for investors to remain cautious in September," said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. "The Fed is reopening a moderate rate-cutting cycle after a long pause, which makes it difficult for traders to determine their positions." This long-term bull analyst expects the S&P 500 to fall 5% to 10% this fall, before rebounding to between 6800 and 7000 points. ( Jin10 )