The financial market is highly focused on the upcoming August U.S. non-farm payroll data. Analysts generally expect an increase of 75,000 in non-farm employment for August, with the unemployment rate potentially rising slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. It is noteworthy that the July data was significantly revised down to an increase of 73,000.
Currently, the market's expectation probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September has exceeded 90%. This non-farm data will become one of the important reference indicators before the Federal Reserve's decision.
The recently released economic indicators provide us with some clues. In August, the ADP employment number (commonly known as "small non-farm") increased by only 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The Federal Reserve's latest "Beige Book" also shows that employment levels remain stable in most regions, but half of the regions report a decrease in immigrant workers, especially in the construction industry. Furthermore, Nomura Securities expects that the annual benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be drastically lowered by 600,000 to 900,000 jobs; however, this expectation has already been absorbed by the market.
The impact of non-farm payroll data on the cryptocurrency market is mainly realized through affecting the expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market risk appetite. If the data is below expectations, it may strengthen concerns about economic slowdown and enhance market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. This usually leads to a weakening of the dollar, improving market liquidity expectations, which is favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, it should be noted that if the data is extremely weak, it may trigger recession concerns, putting short-term pressure on risk assets.
Conversely, if the data is stronger than expected, it may indicate that economic resilience still exists, which could weaken market expectations for an immediate or significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In this case, the dollar may strengthen, market liquidity expectations may tighten, and this could put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
If the data generally meets expectations, the market response may be relatively calm, possibly maintaining a volatile pattern while waiting for more economic indicators. Investors may pay more attention to the details of the employment data, such as wage growth, as well as subsequent policy statements from Federal Reserve officials.
In any case, this non-farm payroll data will become an important indicator for observing the direction of the U.S. economy and predicting the direction of monetary policy, and is worth close attention from market participants.
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The financial market is highly focused on the upcoming August U.S. non-farm payroll data. Analysts generally expect an increase of 75,000 in non-farm employment for August, with the unemployment rate potentially rising slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. It is noteworthy that the July data was significantly revised down to an increase of 73,000.
Currently, the market's expectation probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September has exceeded 90%. This non-farm data will become one of the important reference indicators before the Federal Reserve's decision.
The recently released economic indicators provide us with some clues. In August, the ADP employment number (commonly known as "small non-farm") increased by only 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The Federal Reserve's latest "Beige Book" also shows that employment levels remain stable in most regions, but half of the regions report a decrease in immigrant workers, especially in the construction industry. Furthermore, Nomura Securities expects that the annual benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be drastically lowered by 600,000 to 900,000 jobs; however, this expectation has already been absorbed by the market.
The impact of non-farm payroll data on the cryptocurrency market is mainly realized through affecting the expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market risk appetite. If the data is below expectations, it may strengthen concerns about economic slowdown and enhance market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. This usually leads to a weakening of the dollar, improving market liquidity expectations, which is favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, it should be noted that if the data is extremely weak, it may trigger recession concerns, putting short-term pressure on risk assets.
Conversely, if the data is stronger than expected, it may indicate that economic resilience still exists, which could weaken market expectations for an immediate or significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In this case, the dollar may strengthen, market liquidity expectations may tighten, and this could put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
If the data generally meets expectations, the market response may be relatively calm, possibly maintaining a volatile pattern while waiting for more economic indicators. Investors may pay more attention to the details of the employment data, such as wage growth, as well as subsequent policy statements from Federal Reserve officials.
In any case, this non-farm payroll data will become an important indicator for observing the direction of the U.S. economy and predicting the direction of monetary policy, and is worth close attention from market participants.