Analyst: If the August CPI data does not rise significantly, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

On September 11, the U.S. August CPI data will be released tonight at 20:30. The market is currently pricing in a 100% probability of the Fed cutting rates next Wednesday, especially after the unexpected drop in August producer prices and weak U.S. job growth. The only question now is how much the rate cut will be, and how officials will respond regarding further rate cuts this year if Thursday's CPI data comes in above expectations. Meanwhile, companies are absorbing some of the tariff costs brought about by Trump's administration's trade policies, which has somewhat alleviated inflationary pressures. Economists expect that after considering a 0.3% month-on-month rise, the overall CPI year-on-year increase in August will rise slightly from 2.7% in July to 2.9%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to remain unchanged at a year-on-year rate of 3.1% and a month-on-month rate of 0.3%. BeiChen Lin, a senior strategist at Russell Investments, stated that a "very large" upside surprise would be needed to prevent the Fed from cutting rates by 25 basis points next week, but even mild data that exceeds expectations would be enough for officials to express concerns about future price rise risks while cutting rates. The "core services" category in the CPI report deserves special attention.