Prediction Markets Favor BTC’s Challenge of $125,000

According to the latest data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, most traders expect Bitcoin (BTC) to surpass $125,000 this month. About 31% of participants are bullish, indicating ongoing positive market sentiment.

(Source: Polymarket)

Although only 9% think BTC will cross $130,000 in July, even fewer expect moves to $140,000 or $150,000. However, investor confidence has clearly rebounded.

U.S. Policies Drive Crypto Industry Forward

Bitcoin’s upbeat outlook is closely tied to recent policy developments in the United States. Last week, former President Trump signed the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins), marking a major show of support for the crypto industry. Additionally, Congress is moving forward with the CLARITY Act and a bill opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), as part of a broader GOP-led “Crypto Week” initiative. Trump emphasized that these bills aim to make crypto “a core pillar of the American economy.”

Truth Social Deepens Bitcoin Holdings

Another tailwind for the crypto market comes from Trump Media—the parent company of Truth Social—which announced that its Bitcoin reserves have reached $2 billion. Company president Devin Nunes explained that holding Bitcoin enables businesses to maintain financial freedom, combat financial discrimination, and create future value through planned utility tokens. This move not only strengthens BTC’s fundamentals but may also encourage more institutions and corporations to allocate a portion of their reserves to Bitcoin.

BTC Price Support and Key Breakout Levels

Although BTC is currently trading at roughly $117,000, most market participants believe that as long as it holds above $115,000, there is additional room for a rebound. If bulls push the price above $120,000, the price could rally toward the forecasted $125,000 and potentially higher.

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Conclusion

With supportive policy tailwinds, growing corporate BTC allocations, and rising confidence in prediction markets, Bitcoin currently enjoys multiple sources of bullish momentum. While monitoring short-term pullback risks is important, the medium-term trend remains positive. Investors should keep a close eye on whether BTC can break through the pivotal $120,000 resistance level in the near future.