Two Scenarios Where Ethereum Could Reach $5,140: Seizing the Next Bull Market Opportunity

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As of August 2025, Ethereum (ETH) has traded in a range between $3,340 and $3,550, rising more than 15% since the end of June. Although ETH has not yet surpassed its yearly high of $3,941, technical indicators remain strong, and market sentiment is still optimistic.

The key drivers for ETH’s upward momentum include:

1. The Federal Reserve has adopted a dovish tone, and the market anticipates interest rate cuts beginning in the fourth quarter;
2. Major institutions such as BlackRock have significantly increased their ETH holdings, with rapid growth in ETF positions;
3. Total Value Locked (TVL) on Layer 2 networks (such as Arbitrum and Base) continues to climb, with active wallet counts hitting new records.

Key Support Levels and On-Chain Indicators

Blockchain analyst Ali stated on TradingView that ETH’s main support level is currently at $3,300. As long as this medium-term uptrend remains intact, the critical zone holds.

Regarding on-chain indicators, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) is currently at a moderate level, indicating that most investors are not yet engaging in panic-driven profit taking. Additionally, ETH reserves on exchanges are declining, indicating stronger market buying sentiment.

Scenario 1: Steady Rebound to $4,220

If ETH consolidates in the $3,300 to $3,700 range and sustains higher trading volumes in the coming days, it is likely to test $4,220 first.

Technical signals:

• The 20-day and 60-day moving averages on the daily chart are in a bullish alignment;
• The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, with buy signals are strengthening;
• Investors are steadily increasing trading volume, signaling renewed market inflows.

Trading recommendations:

• Consider buying in portions on dips between $3,500 and $3,600;
• Set take-profit levels between $4,200 and $4,250;
• If the price drops below $3,300, set stop-losses to mitigate reversal risks.

Scenario 2: Breakout Rally to $5,140

If ETH decisively breaks above $4,500 on strong volume and holds this level, it could quickly trigger a sharp rally targeting $5,140.

Potential drivers include:

• ETF inflows continue to surge, with institutional capital is increasing its exposure;
• The expansion of Layer 2 projects is boosting network activity and gas fee revenue;
• Market sentiment enters a FOMO (fear of missing out) phase, drawing in speculative capital.

Trading recommendations:

• Initiate new positions only after a confirmed breakout above $4,500;
• Set a target price of $5,140 and take profits in stages;
• If the breakout does not hold, be cautious and use trailing stop-losses.

Risk Warnings and Strategic Advice

1. A shift back to a hawkish Fed stance could trigger a market downturn;
2. Technical vulnerabilities or hacking incidents on Ethereum’s mainnet may negatively impact prices;
3. Bitcoin price movements continue to impact ETH, and sudden BTC volatility could quickly drag ETH lower.

Advice for new investors:

• Avoid all-in strategies; manage your exposure with prudent position sizing;
• Adhere strictly to stop-loss rules, and never make oversized directional bets;
• Track on-chain data and ETF flow trends, and adjust your strategy promptly.