US stocks fall 5% vs Bitcoin rise 5.6%: The first asset rotation signal of the Trump era has appeared.

• Bitcoin surged to $95,490, and the market is holding its breath for Trump’s first hundred days in office speech. In the past week, investors withdrew over $4 billion in BTC from the exchange, releasing a strong bullish signal.
• Trump’s policy combination - including the potential establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and the revival of tariff threats - is creating a situation where opportunities and risks coexist. As the stock market comes under pressure, Bitcoin is benefiting from the growing demand for safe-haven assets.
• On-chain data shows that the exchange’s Bitcoin reserves have sharply declined. If market momentum and supply tightening continue, the conditions for breaking through the $100,000 mark are maturing.

Strong rebound on Monday

Bitcoin ( BTC ) surged strongly to $95,490 on Monday, coinciding with the market preparing for Trump’s hundred-day speech. As the announcement of the special cryptocurrency policy approaches, investors are starting to adjust their positions - on-chain data has begun to show signs.

the driving force above $95,000

CoinGecko data shows that Bitcoin has risen 0.8% in the last 24 hours, reaching $95,490.92. During Monday’s trading session, BTC fluctuated between $92,953 and $95,490, maintaining recent upward momentum. The weekly performance is also solid, rising 8.9% compared to last Monday, with a cumulative increase of about 15% over the past 30 days. The crypto market is closely watching whether Trump will make a clear statement regarding the rumored Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal.

Capital Migration

Just after Trump’s controversial call for interest rate cuts, over $4 billion in Bitcoin has flowed out of exchanges in the past week. Investors are clearly moving tokens to cold wallets, which is usually a bullish sign for prices.

The Cryptocurrency Effect of Trump’s First Hundred Days in Office

The recent rise of Bitcoin is not an isolated event – it is fluctuating in sync with the US stock market (especially the stocks of tech giants), as the market attempts to predict the signals that may be released from Trump’s speech. Analysts say that if Trump formally supports Bitcoin reserves, it could trigger a parabolic rise towards $100,000. Conversely, if the focus shifts excessively towards tariffs or severe budget cuts, it may impact the overall market and limit Bitcoin’s short-term upward potential.

TradingEconomics data shows that the inflation rate has dropped from 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025. Trump quickly attributed this to himself, but economists warn that his pro-tariff policies could reignite inflationary pressures.

The expectation of interest rate cuts cools down.

Despite Trump’s strong pressure to cut interest rates and even threaten to replace Fed Chairman Powell, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 90.1% probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the May 7 meeting. In short: the market has heard Trump’s demands but has not yet bought into them.

Asset rotation under the shadow of tariffs

Trump’s ongoing rhetoric on tariffs continues to impact U.S. stocks (especially the tech stocks known as the “magnificent seven”), and this uncertainty is actually benefiting Bitcoin, as its safe-haven properties as “digital gold” are being recognized.

In comparison, Bitcoin has risen by 5.6% this year, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices have all fallen by 5% during the same period. Investors fleeing the turbulent traditional financial markets are beginning to favor Bitcoin’s relative strength.

Is 100,000 USD in sight?

The geopolitical tensions and market anxieties during Trump’s first hundred days in office unexpectedly became a tailwind for Bitcoin. BTC’s steadfastness at the $90,000 mark amidst the clamor is significant, showcasing its resilience while preserving the hope of reaching $100,000.

CryptoQuant on-chain data reveals key trends:

• Since April 22, the exchange’s Bitcoin reserves have decreased by over $4 billion.

• The weekly deposit scale plummeted from 237.8 billion USD to 233.8 billion USD.

• A potential supply tightness is forming.

If demand continues to heat up while available supply keeps shrinking, the time when Bitcoin breaks the six-digit barrier may come sooner than most people expect.