What are the key factors affecting Bitcoin's price trend in May #五月行情预测 ?

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 2 AM on May 8th! This data directly determines the trend of BTC for the latter half of the month!
Today is May 6, 2025, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced on May 7, which is one day later. As of April 2025, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the March meeting and is expected to have two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. However, there is no official data on the May decision yet, but the market expects a possible rate cut. The market generally expects: The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.2% probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in May, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.8%.
From a policy perspective, recent economic data from the United States is quite noteworthy. The non-farm payroll data is rather strong, with 177,000 new jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. However, inflationary pressures have not shown significant relief, with the core PCE inflation rate still at 2.8%. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve is surely thinking about observing for a while to see which direction the economy is heading before deciding on the next steps.
Looking at the US stock market, it has been rising steadily recently, with the S&P 500 index having increased for 9 consecutive days, and the US dollar index has also strengthened. What does this indicate? It indicates that the market has quite a bit of confidence in the resilience of the economy, which in turn means that the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is not as high.
Focus on Powell's speech. The market is eagerly waiting to see how he comments on the inflation outlook and Trump's tariff policy. If Powell sends out "hawkish" signals, such as emphasizing inflation risks, the market is likely to experience a "quake," with significant volatility; but if he hints at some concerns about economic slowdown, the market may immediately raise expectations for a rate cut in June.
Trump's tariff policy should not be underestimated in its impact on the market.
Tariff policies are likely to affect inflation, and if inflation is impacted, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Conversely, if economic data shows signs of recession, the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Therefore, the performance of Bitcoin in May is filled with uncertainty #Gate.io 币种上新 .