Bitcoin recovers to 16 million yen, with accelerated inflow of funds for "national risk avoidance" due to the downgrade of US bonds | Contribution from bitbank analyst

## This week’s weekly report

An analyst from the major domestic exchange bitbank, Mr. Hasegawa, illustrates this week’s cryptocurrency (virtual currency) Bitcoin chart and interprets the future outlook.

Table of Contents

1. Bitcoin On-chain Data
2. bitbank contribution

Bitcoin On-Chain Data

Number of BTC Transactions

BTC Transactions (Monthly)

Active Address Count

Active Address Count (Monthly)

BTC mining pool withdrawal address

Exchange and Other Services

bitbank Analyst Analysis (Contribution: Tomoya Hasegawa)

Weekly Report for This Week:

This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) to yen exchange rate has shown a steady trend, recovering to 16 million yen for the first time since January 31.

Due to Moody’s downgrading US Treasuries last week, US stock futures fell at the start of the week, causing BTC to drop from 15.5 million yen to 15 million yen. However, during US trading hours, there was a buyback, recovering the losses.

After that, the market continued to consolidate around the key level of 15.5 million yen, but the Texas cryptocurrency reserve bill (SB21) passed its second reading with a large majority, and the outflow of funds from the United States supported the BTC market, breaking above 15.5 million yen in the early hours of the U.S. time on the 21st.

Afterwards, although it temporarily fell due to a sharp decline in the US stock market, it rose again as SB21 was approved in the third reading, and on that day, it successfully updated the all-time high (ATH) in dollar terms. On the following day, the buying momentum continued during Asian hours, successfully recovering to 110,000 dollars and 16 million yen in dollar and yen terms, respectively.

【Figure 1: BTC to JPY Chart (1-hour candlestick)】 Source: Created from bitbank.cc Source: Created by Glassnode

In addition to the downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds, the passage of the Trump tax cuts in the U.S. House of Representatives has led to concerns over fiscal issues, resulting in capital fleeing from U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar this week. As a result, U.S. interest rates have risen for the long term, but the counterparty risk of the “country” has become a concern, leading to an influx of funds into BTC.

In fact, the influx of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF is also accelerating, with a net inflow of $2.53 billion recorded as of the 22nd of this week, marking the fifth largest net inflow in history (Figure 2). Monthly net inflows have also exceeded $5 billion, offsetting the net outflow of $4.22 billion from February to March of this year.

【Figure 2: BTC against USD and Weekly ETF Flow】 Source: Created from Glassnode, farside

On the other hand, the BTC options market is lacking in excitement despite the dollar-denominated spot price hitting an all-time high.

As of the 22nd, it can be seen that the open interest has increased at the $120,000 and $130,000 strike prices, but there is no movement observed in the upcoming expiration months looking for upside calls or far OTM calls (Figure 3).

Immediately after Mr. Trump won the U.S. presidential election last November, upside calls were actively sought, and gamma hedging accelerated the market rise. However, it has been pointed out that the current trends in the options market are not engaging enough to induce such gamma squeezes.

The months in which the open interest increased at $120,000 and $130,000 are primarily June 6 and July 25, indicating that the market is expected to have some short-term upside potential, while it can also be said that June is pricing in the possibility of a pause in the upward movement.

The “U.S. selling” and the influx of funds via ETFs are expected to continue into next week, creating a favorable environment for BTC. However, the technical overheating is also intensifying, and the expiration date until a correction might surprisingly be short.

【Figure 3: Deribit BTC Options Open Interest (Change from Previous Day)】 Source: Created by Glassnode

Contributor: Yuya Hasegawa After graduating from a university in the UK, I worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and cryptocurrency market at a venture company consisting of former financial institution employees. Since 2019, I have been a market analyst at Bitbank, Inc. I have provided comments to major domestic financial media and have numerous contributions to overseas media. List of Past Reports