Where might the turning point be? If historical patterns still hold, the turning point of this market cycle may occur under the following circumstances: for example, the market's anticipation of the "Federal encryption regulatory framework" has not been realized, or The Federal Reserve (FED) sends hawkish signals. If Bitcoin repeatedly fails to break through $120,000, it may trigger the collective liquidation of profitable positions.

To untie the bell, one must find the person who tied it — since this round of market activity is driven by American funds, its conclusion is likely to be determined by a change in the attitude of American capital.

Be prepared for volatility: Bitcoin may not drop sharply immediately, but the frequency and amplitude of high-level fluctuations could increase. In summary, Bitcoin's short-term fate is already deeply tied to U.S. capital. If the U.S. continues to "pull tricks" and release favorable news, the market may continue.