#美联储会议纪要 The Federal Reserve expressed a high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook in its recent meeting minutes, primarily due to the impact of the announced trade policies on economic activity being more detrimental than expected. Specifically, the Fed predicts that real GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 will be lower than previously anticipated, as the implementation of trade policies has had a more negative impact on economic activity than expected. Furthermore, the tightening of trade policies is expected to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, thereby dropping potential GDP growth in the coming years.

The Federal Reserve also emphasized the significant impact of tariff policies on inflation, expecting this to significantly raise the inflation rate this year, and to continue to push it higher in 2026, although the intensity will weaken. In the long term, the inflation rate is expected to drop to 2% in 2027. Meanwhile, the labor market is expected to remain tight in the foreseeable future, with the unemployment rate expected to be above the natural rate of unemployment by the end of this year, and to remain above the natural rate of unemployment until 2027.

The meeting minutes also mentioned that Federal Reserve officials are cautious about the policy and interest rate decisions for the next meeting, planning to announce new forecasts and the interest rate dot plot at the meeting scheduled for June 17-18. The market currently anticipates that the likelihood of a rate drop before the September meeting is almost zero.