What has Bitcoin done in the past? What is it doing now? What might it do in the future?

We will try to answer this question. However, since Bitcoin is not yet regulated, analyzing prices solely through Technical Analysis is often insufficient.

Although decentralization seems like a good thing, it actually means that Bitcoin is often affected by global forces and events. We have seen this in the past and it may continue to happen in the future.

The most exciting aspect of Bitcoin’s unregulated status is its high price volatility. This attracts investors with a risk appetite, while deterring more traditional and centralized institutions.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating between $117,000 and $120,000. The first key resistance level is $121,556, as I mentioned earlier. Unless we see multiple daily closing prices above this level, testing $100,000 remains possible. The current main support level is $116,862. If Bitcoin closes below this level on a daily basis, it may trigger further declines.

The thick line in the chart represents the level of $123,868. If there is a decline, this position is likely to be tested first. We will explain the importance of $123,868 in the second part.

In this analysis, we assume that the technical trends of Bitcoin started in 2012. In the previous section, we mentioned $123,868—now let’s delve into the significance of this level.

When prices experience unexpected fluctuations, we often blame news or political statements. In fact, mainstream market prices are controlled by AI systems and exchange bots. If a certain asset is technically destined to reach a certain price, it will achieve this through one of two ways:

1. Consistent with the natural behavior of investors and technical trends (soft landing or slow rise);
2. Or it may be driven by robots, which typically require a “catalyst”—such as rumors, news, or announcements—to quickly raise or lower prices. This often triggers panic, causing retail investors to suffer significant losses, but the price will ultimately reach where it was supposed to go.

Since 2012, we have seen a “symmetrical triangle” pattern reach its target in 2018, followed by a price drop. Then in 2020, a “cup” pattern formed and encountered resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci level and retraced. After that, an “ascending wedge” appeared, leading to a bear market.

The main goal now is to reach the target level of $123,868 formed by the cup structure from 2018 to 2020. The price may first pierce this level and then pull back to test $100,000.

Bitcoin rose from $25,000 to $74,000, forming a flag pattern before a false breakout to $48,888, then moving towards a target of $145,126. The number 8,888 suggests the presence of market psychology and manipulation.

The key area ahead is still $123,868. If it cannot break through effectively, it may fall back to the liquidity area of $100,000.

What will happen next?

The “cup and handle” pattern formed between 2021 and 2024 has a target of $267,722 — but I don’t think it will be achieved that quickly. First is the 1.618 Fibonacci level of $155,255, which is a strong resistance level in the historical cycle.

A “rising wedge” is also forming in this area, which will complete around $155,000. If Bitcoin retraces here, the potential targets are: $64,293 → $48,965 → $37,292. It doesn’t necessarily need to retrace deeply; as long as it touches any key Fibonacci level of 0.382, 0.500, or 0.618 and rebounds, the pattern is considered valid.

Please remember, this is just my speculation. Let’s wait and see how much will come true — but keep these key price levels in mind.