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Bitcoin is bullish, after all, gold has already reached historical highs and global currency is flooding. Recently, due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, it has provided an enter a position opportunity for Bitcoin.
For short-term volatility traders, the last few days have been an entry opportunity.
Bitcoin's pullback is a periodic adjustment, and global liquidity still dominates price movements.
Liquidity drives market cycles. The global M2 money supply growth can still explain more than half of the Bitcoin price fluctuations, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as an asset to "combat currency debasement." Over the past year, the Asian trading session has dominated price discovery, indicating that regional liquidity tightening is driving recent market volatility.
Leverage cleansing creates opportunities. Bitcoin futures open interest reached a high of $52 billion at the beginning of October, followed by continuous liquidations that led to a decline of about 18% in Bitcoin in early October. Currently, leverage has fallen back to the 61st percentile, and the price of Bitcoin relative to gold is close to a one-year low. We believe this is a mid-cycle adjustment rather than the start of a bear market.
On-chain data reflects market maturity. The revenue and price of major public chains (L1) show a strong correlation, and Bitcoin Treasury continues to be accumulated by institutions. This indicates that the Bitcoin ecosystem is maturing and reinforces its important position in asset allocation models.
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