#美联储会议纪要将公布

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting, released this Thursday, are a key clue for the market's assessment of the direction of interest rates. The minutes are expected to confirm that the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus to the downside risks in the labor market, supporting its recent decision to cut interest rates. Officials are concerned that a weak labor market could pose a greater threat to the economy as inflation stabilizes. Internal divisions within the Fed regarding whether to cut rates again in December are growing. Recently, several Fed officials have made hawkish remarks, emphasizing that unless there is clearer evidence of a decline in inflation levels, it is not appropriate to rush into rate cuts. Market expectations have also cooled accordingly. The FedWatch tool indicates that the current market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting has fallen below 50%, to about 44.4%. This means that the probability of keeping rates unchanged is slightly higher.

The inflation rate remains slightly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but core inflation has shown a good downward trend. Many analysts believe that the previous upward pressure on prices was transitory. Doves argue that as the labor market shows signs of fatigue, inflation is close to the target level, and the necessity to maintain high interest rates is decreasing; they suggest using interest rate cuts to further stimulate the economy.