#美联储会议纪要将公布 Fed's probability of a rate cut in December plummets to 39%-41%, market confidence collapses!!!

In just one week, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has been halved from over 60% to less than 40%! The latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the current probability is only 41%, with some quotes dropping to 39%. The reasons are threefold:

1. Multiple Fed officials collectively adopt a hawkish stance, with Vice Chairman Jefferson clearly stating that "further interest rate cuts need to be gradually advanced."

2. Fed Governor Waller, while supporting a rate cut in December, emphasized that this is merely a "risk management-style rate cut" and not an indication that the economy has deteriorated to the point of requiring a significant reduction.

3. The market is concerned that the delayed data set to be released intensively this week (especially the September non-farm payrolls) may not be as weak as expected, which could give the Fed more reason to stay put.

This week's biggest "black swan": September non-farm payroll report is coming.
Due to the previous government shutdown in the United States, a large amount of economic data was delayed, and this week it will be released intensively, with the September non-farm payrolls on Thursday becoming the focus of the entire market.

JPMorgan expects only 50,000 new jobs in September. If this is indeed so weak, it could leave a glimmer of hope for a rate cut in December; however, Goldman Sachs warns: this data is already severely lagging and has limited reference significance, "it is unlikely to resolve the debate about the outlook."

Worse still, the White House has already leaked that the October employment report will not include unemployment rate data, and the October CPI will not be published either. The quality of data for the next few months will be significantly compromised, making it much more difficult for the Fed to make decisions.