Today I saw the CEO of a certain encryption data analysis firm drop a bombshell opinion, which completely stunned me.

Didn't the Federal Reserve say they would stop tapering on December 1st? Everyone thought liquidity would be returning. But then they poured cold water on it: don't be too happy too soon, do you really want to see the balance sheet repair? Not until early 2026.
How is this logic derived? Let's pull out the old ledger from 2019—on August 1st of that year, it was officially announced that quantitative tightening had ended, but due to the settlement of maturing government bonds being delayed until mid-month, the balance sheet took another half month to drop. Does this script look familiar now? Stopping on December 1st, the actual operation will be delayed until mid-month to wrap up, followed by a long repair period.
In simple terms, there are three heart-wrenching facts:
Ending tightening does not mean immediate easing.
The balance sheet needs a process to go from contraction to expansion.
Does the market want to drink real liquidity? Just wait it out.
I thought the cold winter was about to pass, but it seems it might still be freezing for quite a while. That said, after the balance sheet bottomed out in 2019, the market started to warm up not long after. Will there be an expected reaction this time?
Do you think this judgment for 2026 is reliable? Or will traders price in their expectations in advance?