## Nickel Market Shift: Indonesia's Dominance Is Reshaping Global Supply

The nickel world just got turned upside down. **Indonesia now controls over 50% of global nickel production** with 2.2 million metric tons in 2024—a wild jump from just 345,000 MT in 2017. The Philippines and Russia, who used to call the shots, are now watching from the sidelines.

Here's what's actually happening:

**The EV boom is real, but supply is crushing prices.** Nickel was supposed to be the next battery metal star. EV batteries need it, stainless steel eats it up—demand should be through the roof. Except Indonesia flooded the market so hard that nickel prices have been sliding down from $20k/ton in May 2024. Producers in the Philippines, Australia, and New Caledonia are straight up shutting down mines because margins got destroyed.

**Indonesia's playing 4D chess.** They're not just mining—they're building an entire EV battery supply chain. In 2021, they fired up their first battery-grade nickel processing plant. Ford just took an 8.5% stake in a $3.8 billion battery project there. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt is running the show with 73.2% ownership. The play: lock in the entire battery supply before anyone else figures out how to scale.

**The geopolitical angle:** Canada supplies 46% of US nickel imports, but tariff wars are creeping in. The UK and US just banned Russian nickel. China imports Indonesia's surplus and controls 50% of the world's stainless steel production—so they're basically setting the price now.

**Reality check:** New Caledonia's nickel output crashed 52% YoY. Australia's down 26%. Brazil down 7%. The US only produces 8,000 MT from a single mine in Michigan. Meanwhile, Indonesia's just getting started.

TL;DR: If you're betting on nickel, you're betting on Indonesia vs. the rest of the world. The short-term headwinds are real, but the long-term play is still EV batteries—question is whether margins will ever come back.