Two suspected insider addresses bet on "OpenAI releasing a new model on the 13th," with most of their historical profits coming from OpenAI-related predictions.

On December 5, according to PolyBeats, the entry “Will OpenAI release a new frontier model before December 13?” was created 5 hours ago. As of press time, its probability has surged from 45% to 91%. The market for this prediction was established based on widespread rumors on December 2 regarding an internal OpenAI “Code Red” memo. Reportedly, CEO Sam Altman, in response to the challenge from Google CEX 3, has asked his team internally to “delay ads and release the inference model next week” (i.e., between December 8 and 12). Internal assessments suggest that the performance of this new inference model will “surpass CEX 3.” Although OpenAI has remained silent officially, competitive pressure and internal rumors of delayed advertising have led the market to broadly speculate that a new frontier model (such as the GPT-5 series or an inference model) is about to be launched, with a target date of December 13. The two traders highlighted in this update currently hold the top two spots on the market’s Yes share leaderboard: Trader 0xLuck currently holds 2,496 “Yes” shares at an average price of 88c, with only one loss in 25 trades and a historical profit of nearly $45,000, more than half of which comes from OpenAI-related positions; trader lamps currently holds 1,973 “Yes” shares at an average price of 35c, with 84% of their historical profit of $73,000 coming from OpenAI-related positions.