#美联储重启降息步伐 $ZEC

The rate cut drama has reached a fever pitch, and Trump’s side can’t sit still anymore.

Hassett—the economic advisor widely considered the frontrunner for the next Fed chair—has recently gone public, stating outright: there must be a rate cut next week. Interestingly, the list of candidates, which was originally quite long, now only has him left. It’s obvious to anyone what this move means. If he really takes the position, the direction of monetary policy is basically set.

The data is starting to align with this narrative as well. The ADP employment report suddenly turned negative, and the services employment index has been shrinking for six consecutive months. These signals provide the rate cut camp with the best ammunition.

The market reaction is straightforward—the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 87%. Traders are just waiting for the Fed to nod in confirmation.

But don’t rush in just yet.

Deutsche Bank recently released a research report, reminding everyone to stay calm: economic fundamentals may not actually support the market’s current aggressive rate cut expectations. The hawks within the Fed are still insisting that the inflation issue hasn’t been resolved, and Powell himself keeps emphasizing policy independence.

The situation is quite delicate now:

Hassett represents Trump’s viewpoint—cut rates as soon as possible and bring interest rates down.
On Powell’s side, it’s still the same old logic: follow the data and maintain independent judgment.

The power struggle is now out in the open. The market is betting on the start of an easing cycle, but the answer from the Fed might end up being much more conservative than expected.

So if rates really are cut next week, will it be a case of “expectations fulfilled, keep rallying”? Or will it be “good news is out, time to sell”?

What do you think? Do you believe the newcomer will bring new policies, or do you think Powell’s steady approach will continue? $ETH