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Back in mid-September last year, the Fed kicked off its cutting cycle with a bold 50 basis point slash, dropping rates from 5.5% down to 5.0%. That was the signal everyone had been waiting for.
But here's where it gets interesting. Since that September 18th move, the bond market hasn't exactly played along with the script. Short-term yields? They've cooperated—1-year bonds dipped from 3.98% to 3.59%. Makes sense when rates are falling.
The longer end though? Completely different story. 10-year yields climbed from 3.71% all the way to 4.15%. And the 30-year? Shot up from 4.03% to a hefty 4.80%. That's a massive steepening of the curve, and it's telling us something about what the market actually expects for inflation and growth ahead.
So while the Fed's been cutting, long-term rates have been rising. Classic divergence. This matters for everything from mortgage rates to how capital flows into risk assets.
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The long end skyrocketed to 4.8%, feeling like the market is wildly pricing in stagflation risk.
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Interesting, even after cutting rates, long-term interest rates are higher. How much damage does that do to mortgage lending?
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I just want to know if this steep curve will eventually signal a recession; it's a bit unsettling.
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The Fed is over there slicing cheese, while the bond market is directly flipping the table—completely two different scenarios.
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The short end is obedient, the long end is rebellious—that's probably the market signaling stagflation is coming.
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Laughing to death, the central bank thinks it's playing chess, but the bond market doesn't care about that at all.
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Inflation expectations just can't be suppressed; it seems the market is still too scared to act.
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The 30-year yield soaring to 4.8 is really high; my long-term bonds are truly in luck.
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This divergence is the most disgusting—unable to enjoy the benefits of rate cuts and facing rising long-term financing costs.
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Long-term bonds are surging this much—it shows everyone’s betting on stagflation. I think we still need to be cautious.
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I don’t really get it. Why are short-term and long-term bonds moving in opposite directions?
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With the yield curve this steep, we really need to think about where inflation is heading next.
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Long-term bonds are this aggressive, the mortgage index is definitely going to suffer too.
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Wait, the market doesn’t believe the Fed’s narrative at all.
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To put it bluntly, the bond market is signaling that inflation isn’t over yet—that’s the real message.
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What does a long bond rally mean? Is all the capital moving to risk assets? I don’t really buy it.
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The Fed cuts rates but long-term bonds rise—this contrast is pretty wild.