Bitcoin Breaks Away from the Four-Year Bull-Bear Cycle

Bear Markets With Over 70% Drawdowns No Longer Occur

1/ The reason the four-year cycle narrative has failed is due to changes in the buy-side structure, not the halving itself.

In the past, deep bear markets typically required retail buying to dry up and a chain reaction of exchange deleveraging to clear the market.

Spot ETFs have shifted Bitcoin’s path from exchanges to brokerage accounts and institutional compliance channels.

Prices will still be highly volatile, but extreme deep bear markets are no longer the system’s sole clearing mechanism.

2/ Gold ETFs as a Reference:
ETF-ization Extends Trend Markets

GLD launched on 2004-11-18 and surpassed $1 billion in assets within its first three trading days.

The significance of ETF-ization is turning an asset from something only a few can buy into something that most capital systems can allocate to.

3/ Spot Bitcoin ETFs Have Scaled Faster Than Gold ETFs

US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in mid-January 2024.

BlackRock’s IBIT reached about $70 billion in assets within roughly 341 trading days—one of the fastest expansions in ETF history.

This speed indicates that buyers are shifting from trading-oriented capital to allocation-oriented capital.

Allocation capital is characterized by rebalancing and sustained buying during downturns, rather than only rushing in at peaks and disappearing during crashes.

4/ Institutional Adoption Upgrades from “Can Buy” to “Can Recommend”; Allocation Ranges Written into Wealth Management Language

Bank of America disclosed that its wealth management advisors can begin recommending crypto ETPs to clients from 2026-01-05, and provided a suggested allocation range of 1% to 4%.

The essence of this step is the compliant integration of distribution networks.

Bitcoin is upgraded from a tradable asset to an allocatable asset, changing the mechanism for bottom formation.

5/ Price Volatility Data: Volatility Remains High, but the Script Shifts from Deep Bear Penetration to High-Level Pullbacks and Range Fluctuations

In November 2025, Bitcoin fell over $18,000 in a single month—one of the largest monthly dollar declines since May 2021.

In October 2025, Bitcoin set a historical high range above $126,000; by early December, the price was around $92,000, a roughly 27% pullback from the October high.

This data shows Bitcoin has not become a low-volatility asset, but the pullbacks are being absorbed by stronger allocation-oriented buying.

6/ Over 70% Deep Bears Are No Longer the Default Outcome
When spot ETFs provide a compliant channel for continuous absorption of supply

As wealth management systems begin to offer clear allocation ranges, the market becomes more like a system where institutions allocate and siphon liquidity, rather than one driven by retail sentiment and exchange leverage.

The result is that pullbacks still occur, but the necessary conditions for repeated 70%+ deep bear markets are weakened.