A major global bank just dropped their December prediction: 25 basis points off the Fed rate. Not exactly a shock if you've been watching the data, but the timing matters more than the size here.

What's interesting isn't just the cut itself—it's what comes after. Quarter-point moves signal caution, not panic. The Fed's walking a tightrope between cooling things down and not spooking markets. For risk assets? This could mean breathing room, especially heading into year-end when liquidity typically tightens anyway.

Keep an eye on how this plays with the dollar strength and Treasury yields over the next few weeks. Those two will tell you more about capital flow direction than any headline will.