Recently, I had an in-depth discussion about the macro situation with a friend. My personal judgment is very clear: SLR unbinding + stopping balance sheet reduction—once these two conditions are met, the signal for a market reversal will arrive.

Of course, a reversal doesn’t mean liquidity will flood in immediately. There will definitely be a transmission process from liquidity shortage to abundance. But these two conditions? Both are indispensable.

If the constraints can really be lifted in early April, combined with the leadership reshuffle in May, as long as there’s no hard-landing recession, this wave of the market is still quite promising. The time window is there—it all depends on how policymakers play their cards.