This week the market is in for some big moves—the Fed is cutting rates while Japan is raising rates, with both central banks acting at the same time.

First, about the rate cut: the market has already considered all possible scenarios. A hawkish rate cut basically means a letdown; if it’s just a standard 25BP cut, the market probably won’t react much either. If there’s a surprise 50BP cut, there might be a decent short-term rally. But to be honest, at this point, no one’s that excited about rate cuts anymore.

As for Japan raising rates, that’s pretty much set in stone. But given the current market sentiment, if ETH corrects before the rate cut, even if Japan does raise rates, it might just be a quick dip—unless they pull a truly unexpected move, but that’s pretty unlikely.

Interestingly, I’ve noticed a few big players quietly adding to their ETH positions recently. These major players clearly have some ideas about the upcoming market, suggesting they think this is a good level to build positions.

From a technical perspective, the key daily support is in the 3050 to 3010 range. As long as this holds, the rebound structure remains intact. In the short term, if there’s a move up, the next resistance is around 3180-3230—keep an eye out for reversal opportunities there.

But if 3000 is broken, the bullish narrative will need to be rewritten. Below, 2960 and 2865 are two key support levels to watch.

In the short term, ETH is still under pressure from the downtrend line. If there’s a rebound near the trend line, you could consider a small short position, but remember to get in and out quickly—don’t linger. If you’ve been following the trend, consider taking some profits; if you missed the move, don’t chase—wait for the next good entry point.