To be honest, the recent surge in gold prices has made me a bit nervous.

Looking through historical data, I found a rather uncanny pattern—every time gold enters a major bull market, it coincides with a world-class financial turmoil. This pattern is really something everyone should be wary of.

Let’s start with the gold bull market from 1971 to 1980; the 1974 financial crisis landed right in the middle. Then look at the rally that started in 2001—the 2008 subprime crisis hit head-on. Both times were like this, so it’s not just a coincidence.

What’s really troubling me now is which direction the US dollar will go.

I’m worried about a repeat of what happened in 1971—a collapse-like devaluation of the dollar. I can’t say there’s zero chance of this happening. If it does happen, how high could gold go? I can hardly imagine.

Even if it doesn’t reach collapse levels, current policy directions point to a pretty high probability that the dollar will continue to weaken. Gold’s current rally has already priced in some of the expected dollar depreciation in advance.

This leads to a question: when the dollar actually starts to plunge, will gold instead follow a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern? After the expectations have been traded, could the actual event trigger a correction?

There’s definitely short-term risk.

If a financial crisis suddenly breaks out, gold could initially drop along with other assets. Why? Because when a crisis first hits, everyone rushes to sell assets for cash flow. But if you look at the last two bull markets, you’ll get it—after the crisis, gold makes another major run, and that’s where the real top is.

So, I just want to remind everyone: don’t blindly chase gold at high prices. At the very least, figure out where the current price stands in the overall trend cycle.

And to be honest, if a financial crisis really breaks out, it’s not just gold that presents opportunities. Global assets will fall—there will be bargains everywhere in stocks and commodities. There’s no need to fixate solely on gold.

The word “crisis” is half danger, half opportunity.

Right now, the most important thing is to earn more and save more capital in the real world. Otherwise, when the opportunity comes and you have no cash on hand, you’ll just have to watch others snatch up the bargains, and that’s a tough pill to swallow.

I can’t guarantee this opportunity will come, but if it does, I’ll definitely give you all a heads-up as soon as possible. The only thing I’m certain about is: the crazier gold’s rally gets, the closer we are to the risk of a global financial crisis. At this rate, something big could really happen within the next year.