With almost all leading assets trading in a range, analysts emphasize that Jerome Powell’s tone, not the rate cut itself, is likely to determine the market’s next true trend.

In recent days, Bitcoin has been moving between $88,000 and $93,000, while liquidity is decreasing toward the end of the year. Ethereum is holding around $3,100, BNB is near $886, and Solana is around $132. The total crypto market capitalization is declining toward $3.1 trillion during this period of waiting.

ETF flows indicate rotation into altcoins

Despite calm price dynamics, exchange-traded funds reveal a more detailed picture. Bitcoin ETF products reported about $60 million in outflows on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted a combined $74 million in net inflows.

Markets remain stagnant ahead of the Fed’s “binary” week

Analysts describe the sentiment as a market waiting for permission to move. Most traders are staying on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, where a December rate cut is considered the base scenario.

Some experts believe the cut is already fully priced in. However, Powell’s guidance will be far more important—especially whether 2026 policy will remain tighter or shift to a more dovish stance.

In their opinion, Bitcoin will likely remain locked around $91,000 immediately after the announcement unless Powell surprises the markets.

Liquidity evaporates as derivatives traders step back

QCP Capital notes that the sharp weekend moves—BTC from $88,000 to $92,000 and ETH from $2,910 to $3,150—highlight how shallow liquidity has become toward year-end.

Open interest plunges:
- Bitcoin open interest is down more than 44% since October
- Ethereum open interest has fallen by over 50%

Retail trader participation is also dropping sharply, with Google search interest returning to the lowest levels seen during the bear market.

Nevertheless, long-term buyers continue to quietly absorb supply. Around 25,000 BTC have left centralized exchanges over the past two weeks, and ETF + corporate balances now exceed exchange holdings, strengthening the structural supply shortage. Still, without a macro catalyst, this steady absorption isn’t enough to push the price out of the range.

Powell’s speech will determine Bitcoin’s next move

Analysts are unanimous that tomorrow’s guidance will set the tone for the market in the final weeks of 2025. A more cautious or “hawkish” message may push Bitcoin back to the $88,000 zone.

A more dovish outlook or a hint of further cuts in early 2026 could trigger a move toward $93,000–$95,000, with the potential to test $97,000–$106,000 if momentum returns. Until then, the dominant strategy remains waiting.

The market is stagnant—the next move depends entirely on Powell’s words.