Will tonight be a calm night or an explosive one?



A barrage of US data is about to hit the market within a few hours:

20:30 - November corporate layoff data release
21:30 - Weekly initial jobless claims ( market expectation: 220,000 )
23:00 - Supply chain pressure index + factory orders data

What's even more explosive? On Polymarket, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has surged to 94%. This figure means the market has all but taken the rate cut as a done deal.

The US dollar has been weakening recently, risk assets are gearing up, and all signs are pointing in the same direction. Unless tonight's employment data suddenly blows expectations out of the water ( a very low probability ), it's hard to see this wave of expectations changing.

But here's the question—when everyone is on the same side of the boat, how much longer can it stay steady?

Are you planning to keep pushing ahead before expectations are realized, or are you quietly reducing your positions in anticipation of a "sell the news" scenario? Will this set of data tonight be a booster or a brake?

For those still holding positions, what's your plan?
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LiquidatedTwicevip
· 2025-12-12 20:41
You're already at 94%, still pushing? Isn't that something everyone knows? When the positive news is realized, I don't believe it will cause a sell-off.
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StableCoinKarenvip
· 2025-12-10 03:18
The 94% figure is really outrageous, the market is betting to the limit, and it feels like it's going to explode tonight
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tx_or_didn't_happenvip
· 2025-12-10 03:09
Is the 94% probability true, it feels like the market is playing a self-actualizing game again
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MissedAirdropAgainvip
· 2025-12-10 02:52
94% probability? That’s basically betting on how fragile the market consensus is.
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MetadataExplorervip
· 2025-12-10 02:51
94% is a bit of a scary number. It feels like when everyone bets on the same side, that's actually the most dangerous situation.
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