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Will tonight be a calm night or an explosive one?
A barrage of US data is about to hit the market within a few hours:
20:30 - November corporate layoff data release
21:30 - Weekly initial jobless claims ( market expectation: 220,000 )
23:00 - Supply chain pressure index + factory orders data
What's even more explosive? On Polymarket, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has surged to 94%. This figure means the market has all but taken the rate cut as a done deal.
The US dollar has been weakening recently, risk assets are gearing up, and all signs are pointing in the same direction. Unless tonight's employment data suddenly blows expectations out of the water ( a very low probability ), it's hard to see this wave of expectations changing.
But here's the question—when everyone is on the same side of the boat, how much longer can it stay steady?
Are you planning to keep pushing ahead before expectations are realized, or are you quietly reducing your positions in anticipation of a "sell the news" scenario? Will this set of data tonight be a booster or a brake?
For those still holding positions, what's your plan?