The two central bank decisions in December may cause the currency circle to experience a "two days of ice and fire".

Let's take a look at the schedule first:
**On December 10**, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates. CME data shows that interest rate cut expectations are stable above 85% - common sense means that the dollar will become cheaper and funds will run to high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

But don't be happy too early.

**On December 19**, the Bank of Japan met. Kazuo Ueda has frequently released hawkish signals recently, and the market is betting that they will end negative interest rates or even raise interest rates by 25 basis points directly. The problem is: once the yen appreciates, the arbitrage funds that have relied on "borrowing yen to buy US dollars and speculating on currency" in the past two years have to quickly close their positions and run away. The impact of this wave of retreat is likely to drain all the water released by the Fed.

Look through the old accounts and you will know - in 2016, 2022, and August last year, every time the yen carry trade was closed on a large scale, Bitcoin did not escape the critical hit of 20%-50%.

So what do you think of this game?
The Fed wants to "release water", but the Bank of Japan is "pulling out the tube". No. 10 may have a brief rebound, but the real thunder is buried on No. 19. Now in this market, good cash is often a peak signal, and bad news comes true quickly.

My thoughts: Don't stud before mid-December, keep some cash in your hand is more practical than anything else.

What do you think? Is it the Fed's thick water pipe, or is the yen unwinding more violent?