#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 How tight are U.S. finances? To put it bluntly, interest expenses have eaten up 14% of the federal budget. Treasury yields are still stuck at 3.7%, which is not the highest level. What's even more heartbreaking is that the degree of fiscal dependence on interest rates is rising sharply - as soon as interest rates shake, the deficit will jump. With each percentage point of fluctuation, the gap in the ledger will expand significantly.

The new Fed chairman is likely to take the throne, and this is a well-known interest rate cut hawk. But this time, the logic is a bit special: it is not that the economy needs blood transfusions, but that the pure interest expense can no longer stand it.

The next plot depends on two points:

First, the official confirmation and first speech of the new Fed chairman - will inflation control or economic expansion be prioritized? This sets the tone.

Second, how do long-term Treasury bonds reflect expectations of interest rate cuts? Past experience is very slap in the face: the higher the call for interest rate cuts, the greater the probability that long-term interest rates will be pushed up.

The worst case scenario is this: short-term interest rates immediately fall, long-term interest rates are topped up by market sentiment, and finally fiscal pressure increases - a bit of a tiger's taste.

What do you think of Bitcoin?

To be honest, the market has long digested the story of the December rate cut. The news itself may not have been as strong as expected for the $BTC .

But from another perspective: if interest rate cuts do come, the dollar weakens, real interest rates fall, and spare money will flow to risky assets. Bitcoin naturally rises.

But here's a pitfall: what if the market reads interest rate cuts as a pessimistic signal that "the economy really can't hold on"? Risk appetite will shrink rapidly, and Bitcoin will most likely fall first in the short term.