Bitcoin stands at 100,000 dollars, and Ethereum touches 4,000!

There is a big drama to play tonight - the Fed's decision meeting. The market is betting that it will cut interest rates for the third time, but the word that really makes the heart skip is the word: hawkish rate cuts. What do you mean? It's just to release water while shouting "Don't expect me to do this all the time".

Where is the contradiction this time?
The Fed is really entangled right now. On the one hand, the employment data began to pull the crotch, and if interest rates were not cut, the economy would be afraid of a hard landing; On the other hand, inflation is quite stubborn, and the core PCE is still hovering at 2.8%, and the decline is too strong and I am afraid that the flames will rise again. What's worse is that the government shutdown has led to the lack of some economic data, and they now drive almost by feeling.

What to watch tonight? Three things could stir up the market:

Let's talk about Powell's speech first. This old man has always spoken flawlessly, but any change in words can be a signal. Goldman Sachs speculates that the statement may contain a foreshadowing - "the threshold for continuing to cut interest rates has been raised." If he repeatedly emphasizes "looking at the data to speak", it is cooling the market, don't fantasize about infinite easing.

Let's look at the dot plot and the voting results. This thing can reveal how divided officials are. It is said that director Milan may jump out and shout "directly cut 50 basis points", while Schmid on the Kansas City side is expected to vote against it. Doves and hawks are now fighting against each other.

Finally, the balance sheet. The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet in October and may reveal tonight whether it will restart buying bonds. While they certainly won't admit it's QE, the liquidity gates will loosen a little bit in substance.

What does it mean for the crypto market?
This resolution is equivalent to a macro-level "big settlement day" for the market. There are three possible directions:

The most likely scenario - rate cuts, but the words are tough. Bitcoin may rush in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to pull up, and there is a high probability that it will fall into shock.

Surprise scene - the attitude is unexpectedly soft, suggesting that it will continue to relax later. That liquidity is really back, and assets like Ethereum may be able to run a decent market.

Anyway, tonight is destined to be unpeaceful, hold your breath and wait for the news.