A major event has quietly happened in the market - the "four-year cycle" theory of Bitcoin, which is regarded as the Bible, is being publicly denied by one industry boss after another.

From hedge fund managers to exchange founders to on-chain data analysts, these smart people have come to the same conclusion: the era of currency speculation according to the old yellow calendar has completely turned the page.

I sorted out the core ideas I found recently and found an interesting phenomenon - although everyone has different angles, the arrows point in the same direction.

**Michael Saylor** has the most radical attitude. He directly said that the word "cycle" itself is a false proposition, Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value, since it is positioned as digital gold, then it should only be bought and not sold like gold, where does the bull and bear switch come from? He called this the "capital siphon effect" - money will only flow in one direction, not backwards.

**CZ** is a little more pragmatic. He acknowledged that history will have rules, but stressed that it should not be rigid. The approval of ETFs brings not only a change in the volume of funds, but also a reconstruction of the underlying logic of the entire market. Take the candlestick chart of the first three halvings to predict the present? That is called carving a boat to ask for a sword.

**Cathie Wood** cuts in from the perspective of institutional behavior, and she believes that the entry of traditional financial giants will act like shock absorbers, filling the deep pit of the past that plummeted by 80%. The "bottom" of this cycle may have appeared a long time ago, but you didn't realize it.

Grayscale's research team provides more specific data support: a 30% pullback is not a big deal in a mature market, it is just a normal fluctuation in a bull market, not a signal of a cycle inflection point.

Arthur Hayes has the most macroscopic perspective. He said that the rise and fall of Bitcoin now has little to do with the halving, and the real dominant variable is the monetary policy of central banks around the world. As soon as the money printing machine is turned on, liquidity pours in, and the price rises; As soon as the faucet is turned off, it is immediately called. Halve? That's just a small episode at the technical level.

**Raoul Pal** stretches the timeline even longer. He feels that this is not a simple cycle of 4-year rounds, but a structural bull market of 5 years or more, which essentially reflects the resonance of the global debt cycle and technology adoption curve.

The voices of investment banks and funds are also very unified. Both Bernstein and VanEck emphasize in the report that institutional demand has just been released and is far from saturated, which will drive the emergence of an "atypical super bull market" - longer, less volatile, and more logically complex.

Finally, there is the real hammer of on-chain data. **Ki Young Ju** directly spread out the data and said: chips are flowing from retail investors to "diamond hands" institutions, and those old models established based on retail panic selling can no longer explain the current market behavior.

To put it bluntly, the rules of the game have changed. The script of "halving-skyrocketing-peaking-cutting" in the past may really not apply to the new market with ETFs, BlackRock, and sovereign funds participating in the new market.