The two technical rebounds look more and more like the wave of operations back then.

If the script really follows the set in 2021-22, BTC will most likely arch to 98,000 to 100,000 boxes this round.

Looking back at the light at the beginning of '22, there are actually three catalysts: the US stock market suddenly stopped falling for a while, and took off with the entire risk-on asset; After the sharp drop, the technical oversold repair, the pit that should be made up must be filled; In addition, the market was betting that the Fed would slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.

The result? This wave of rebound did not last long before it stalled. The second half of 22 years was simply a series of thunderstorms - LUNA directly returned to zero in May, Celsius liquidity crisis + Three Arrows Capital (3AC) liquidation in June, and in November, giants like FTX could collapse, and the entire industry was a chicken feather.

What is the deadliest? Interest rate hike expectations did not fall but rose. Throughout 2022, the Fed not only shrank its balance sheet, but also added 4 points of interest abruptly, and liquidity was drawn cleanly.

Now in 2026, the script has changed: this time it is not "whether interest rate hike expectations will be lowered", but "whether interest rate cut expectations will be raised". But the question arises – what if this expectation fails again? Who knows which mines are still buried underwater? History will not be simply repeated, but it always likes to rhyme the same rhyme.