#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 Is the expectation of interest rate cuts guaranteed to lead to a rise? Don't overthink it.

In the past few weeks, watching the US stock three major indices, gold, and $BTC all soaring under the "interest rate cut expectations" boost, Bitcoin even rebounded above $90,000, as if everything has been thoroughly digested. But there is a common trap that can be overlooked—the market is driven by expectations, and reality is what ultimately materializes.

Once an interest rate cut is officially announced, new doubts may arise: Did the central bank loosen monetary policy because the economy is struggling? Is inflation actually still not under control? Have the previous expectations of rate cuts been already priced in? Such counterthinking will follow one after another.

To put it simply, this is the old trick of "good news being realized = start selling." It has played out many times in history. The recent rally in risk assets has long priced in the upcoming positive news. When the actual rate cut occurs, there may instead be a wave of technical adjustments.

What is the prudent approach? Take profits at high levels, don't be too greedy. Consider buying the dip only after the correction is confirmed. Remember, what can truly support the market is the "continuous influx of funds + stable market sentiment + improving macro trend," not a single policy announcement.