At 3 a.m., the crypto market is about to stay up all night again—this time, the Federal Reserve might be playing the "Sweet Trap" trick.

Cut by 25 basis points? That's already a given, no one will be surprised by that. The real trouble is whether Powell will cut rates while pouring cold water on the market, pulling off a "hawkish rate cut": loosening policy on the surface, but secretly signaling through speeches, "Don’t get too excited, it might be the last."

Inside sources estimate that the rate decision meeting will be quite tense. Some are eager to save employment data, thinking the economy will hard-landing if rates aren’t cut soon; others are watching inflation figures closely and are determined to hit the brakes. The dot plot will likely tilt hawkish, possibly even some members voting against the consensus—once such signals emerge, market expectations will instantly change.

So, what should we do?

**First, don’t take risks tonight until early morning.** A rate cut doesn’t mean the market will take off; if Powell stubbornly says "pause rate cuts," the market could plunge instantly. For those trading futures, set your stop-loss in advance—don’t go in naked.

**Second, keep a close eye on the Fed's balance sheet.** If they really restart bond purchases, it’s like secretly turning on the liquidity tap—liquidity is the lifeblood of a bull market. This signal is even more important than the rate cut itself.

**Third, stay generally bullish.** Tonight, there will likely be swings and shakeouts, but as long as the liquidity faucet remains slightly open, there will be support at the market bottom.

Finally, a question: do you plan to exit early tonight, or wait for a dip to buy the bottom?