On the eve of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 11th, several major Wall Street institutions have provided their forecasts.

Regarding adjustments to the policy statement, analysts at Barclays believe that this statement may include more hawkish language—implying a high likelihood that there will be no change in January. J.P. Morgan, on the other hand, focuses on wording details; they think it might be changed to something like "monitoring the extent and timing of further adjustments," which sounds like a small tweak but is actually a way to slow down future rate cuts. Wells Fargo has a more direct view: most committee members are likely to prefer maintaining the current stance, and the threshold for rate cuts will be raised higher and higher.

Another noteworthy point is reserve management operations. US banks predict that the Fed will announce the purchase of $45 billion in short-term Treasury bills( with maturities of less than one year) starting from January as part of reserve management. However, Wells Fargo holds a different opinion—they believe this meeting will not make an immediate decision and that the official launch will likely be postponed until March.

In summary, the consensus among these institutions is clear: upcoming monetary policy will be more cautious, and rate cuts are unlikely in the near term.