2025-12-11 01:23:02

This month on the 16th, the market may be迎来 the real turning point.

Powell really played a hand of "initial suppression followed by rally" this time. The Fed's planned 25 basis point rate cut is nothing special, but the key is they suddenly announced that in the next 30 days they will buy $40 billion worth of government bonds—this is a clear balance sheet expansion move.

The press conference started off quite稳健 (steady). Powell first mentioned that the labor market is softening, then pointed out signs of rising inflation, and then shifted tone saying whether to cut rates further depends on upcoming data—both sides' risks need to be guarded against. The audience thought he was just playing tai chi again, but unexpectedly, the old man changed his tune in the second half.

He suddenly dropped a bombshell: recent employment data has been seriously overstated, with actual new jobs only around 60,000, indicating the cooling of the labor market is much faster than expected. Even more harshly, he predicted the unemployment rate might rise another 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points.

Then he said inflation has already started to decline, and whether to continue rate cuts in January depends entirely on data. The most critical sentence came—long-term interest rates do not show signs of concerns about inflation. Then he emphasized with increased tone: the labor market faces "significant" downside risks.

Once he said "significant," a dovish signal immediately爆表 (went off the charts).

But don’t forget, Powell said he would let the data speak. The next few days will be the real test: on the 16th, US non-farm payroll data will be released, and on the 18th, the November CPI inflation index. One focuses on employment, the other on inflation—these two reports will directly determine the Fed's next move.

Whether BTC can break through in this time window depends on whether these days’ data will satisfy the market’s expectations.

BTC-4,68%

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ChainSpy

· 2025-12-13 04:52

Powell's combination punch has left me stunned: balance sheet expansion + rate cuts + hints of unemployment risk. Is he trying to save the market or digging a hole? $40 billion in treasury bond purchases—can this signal directly push BTC to a new high? It all depends on whether the non-farm payrolls on the 16th can deliver a strong number. The phrase "significant downside risk" appeared, and I knew the storm was coming; data is truly the ultimate game of power. The dates of the 16th and 18th are perfect—they are critical windows for market movements in the crypto circle. Just waiting to see the spectacle. By the way, Powell's "initial suppression then rally" tactic is played out smoothly. I bet five bucks that BTC will definitely see a big move next week.

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SneakyFlashloan

· 2025-12-11 01:50

Powell's latest move, first giving you a heavy blow and then a warm hug, the non-farm payroll data on the 16th is the real plot twist. Whether it can hit a new high depends entirely on how they perform next, and the mood of expanding the balance sheet is becoming more and more evident. 60,000 new jobs? As soon as this data comes out, next month's unemployment rate might have to rise. Wait, is this paving the way for easing? Then the spring in the crypto world might be coming. The data on the 16th and 18th feels like it will directly set the tone. Dovish to the max but depends on the data; honestly, we're still rolling dice in the casino, and we'll see who wins. With this combination of moves, short-term volatility is inevitable, but in the long term, the expectation of liquidity easing is positive. It's called "observation" in nice words, but actually they've wanted to cut rates for a long time—now they're just looking for a decent excuse. If the non-farm payrolls come in below expectations, BTC might really take off this time.

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LayerHopper

· 2025-12-11 01:50

Powell's move this time is really a case of giving you a cut first and then slapping you, with the expansion of the balance sheet by $40 billion being the real killer move. After the data on the 16th is released, the crypto market will go crazy. Now it all depends on whether the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI will really surprise the market. Honestly, with the labor market so weak, the rate cut cycle is far from over. But back to what I was saying, even with strong dovish signals, it still depends on the data. To put it plainly, it's still a gamble. The probability of BTC breaking down in this window is actually quite high; it all depends on these two reports to determine life or death. This old guy definitely knows how to create an atmosphere, playing it cool first, then rallying — quite skillful. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. It feels like this time is really different. In these two days, all variables are here. Once the data reports come out, the market will probably experience another wave of intense volatility. Whether Non-Farm Payrolls or CPI makes the first move will directly determine the trend for the second half of the month.

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MidnightMEVeater

· 2025-12-11 01:49

Haha, Powell is just playing the sandwich attack—first scaring then feeding expectations. On the 16th, the non-farm payrolls day, I have to stay up for the overnight session. That’s the real liquidity trap.

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ZKSherlock

· 2025-12-11 01:47

actually... the employment revision is what should concern us here more than the dovish signal itself. six figures off? that's like... statistical negligence wrapped in policy theater. makes you wonder what other data points we're just casually trusting without proper verification mechanisms

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MerkleDreamer

· 2025-12-11 01:36

Powell's combination punch is really fierce; expanding the balance sheet by 40 billion directly stunned market expectations. The non-farm payrolls and CPI on the 16th are the true watershed; these two days of data will determine whether BTC can take advantage of the trend and soar. Suddenly realizing that the unemployment rate might also rise, which is indeed a genuine dovish signal. But to be fair, data always speaks louder than tough talk. If the non-farm payrolls this time are below expectations and inflation continues to loosen, next week could really explode. The pattern of first suppressing and then rising is indeed a tactic, but sometimes the market just buys into it.

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