Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle is expected to peak in 2026. Cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

On December 11, former Goldman Sachs executive, author of “Global Macro Investors,” and co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal stated at the Solana Breakpoint conference: “A decline in the labor force participation rate means a shrinking labor force. And the demographic structure is a key driver of debt. Population growth will continue to decline, which means the debt-to-GDP ratio will keep rising—that’s the problem. We have to face the global debt issue, and currency devaluation has always been one way to address (or delay) this problem. We are already seeing signs that the Federal Reserve may need to reconsider its balance sheet and start thinking about how to ‘monetize’ all this debt. Over the next 12 months, we expect to inject liquidity to print about $8 trillion. I know many people might think the crypto cycle is over and feel ‘the good days are gone.’ But in fact, what drives all this is a cycle—not the Bitcoin halving cycle, but a debt maturity cycle. So, I believe it’s not a 4-year cycle but a 5.4-year cycle. In a 5.4-year cycle, we have already passed the trough; the next phase is the upward stage, and the cycle should peak by the end of 2026, not 2025. This is a breakthrough realization for us as global macro investors: understanding that cryptocurrencies are actually a macro asset. Additionally, the cross-rate between altcoins and Bitcoin is driven by the business cycle, which appears to be bottoming rather than peaking.”